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Athletic Performance Trends in Olympics: Part II

机译：奥林匹克运动成绩趋势：第二部分

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摘要

Two decades ago, an article appeared in Mathematical Spectrum (see reference 1) which analysed the athletic performance trends in the Track and Field events of the Olympic Games. It was observed that in any particular event, the winning performance betrayed a relentless trend towards better results. It was therefore boldly predicted that this trend was likely to continue well into the 21st century (see reference 1, p. 82). However, that prediction has turned out to be quite incorrect. In the past five Olympics, the winning performances have levelled off in nearly all events. The trend lines over the last five Olympics show that in only 10 out of the 22 Track and Field events, were there marginal overall improvements, whereas in the remaining 12 events, the overall winning performance actually showed nominal decline. Stated otherwise, the athletic performances in all Track and Field events have nearly reached saturation levels. This article addresses the problems of predicting the asymptotic value of the winning performance in any particular event, and modelling the overall historical trend.
机译：两十年前，《数学谱》上出现了一篇文章（请参阅参考资料1），该文章分析了奥运会田径比赛中的运动表现趋势。可以看出，在任何特定事件中，获胜的表现都背叛了走向更好结果的不懈趋势。因此，大胆预测这种趋势很可能会持续到21世纪（参见参考资料1，第82页）。但是，该预测被证明是非常不正确的。在过去的五届奥运会中，几乎所有赛事的获胜成绩都趋于稳定。过去五届奥运会的趋势线显示，在22项田径赛事中，只有10项总体进步很小，而在其余12项赛事中，总体获胜表现实际上只是名义上的下降。换句话说，在所有田径项目中的运动表现都已接近饱和水平。本文解决了在任何特定事件中预测获胜表现的渐近值并为整体历史趋势建模的问题。

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