Decision Tree Analysis and Real Options: A Reconciliation

Vasiliki Makropoulou

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Decision Tree Analysis and Real Options: A Reconciliation

机译：决策树分析和实物期权：对帐

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The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate in a simple framework how decision tree analysis (DTA) and real options approach (ROA) yield the same results when markets are complete. The common scepticism regarding DTA has its roots in the incorrect assumption that one can apply the same discount rate to the project cash flows and the value of the investment opportunity when the decision maker has the option to defer investment.

机译：本文的目的是在一个简单的框架中演示当市场完成时，决策树分析（DTA）和实物期权方法（ROA）如何产生相同的结果。对DTA的普遍怀疑源自错误的假设，即当决策者可以选择推迟投资时，人们可以对项目现金流量和投资机会的价值采用相同的折现率。

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《Managerial and decision economics: The international journal of research and progress in management economics》 |2011年第4期|共4页
作者
Vasiliki Makropoulou;
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正文语种 eng
中图分类国民经济管理;
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1. Decision Tree Analysis and Real Options: A Reconciliation [J] . Vasiliki Makropoulou Managerial and decision economics: The international journal of research and progress in management economics . 2011,第4期

机译：决策树分析和实物期权：对帐
2. Untangling decision tree and real options analyses: a public infrastructure case study dealing with political decisions, structural integrity and price uncertainty [J] . M. van den Boomen, M. T. J. Spaan, R. Schoenmaker, Construction Management and Economics . 2019,第1a3期

机译：决策树和实物期权分析不一：涉及政治决策，结构完整性和价格不确定性的公共基础设施案例研究
3. Untangling decision tree and real options analyses: a public infrastructure case study dealing with political decisions, structural integrity and price uncertainty [J] . M. van den Boomen, M. T. J. Spaan, R. Schoenmaker, Construction Management and Economics . 2019,第1a3期

机译：未解答的决策树和真实选择分析：公共基础设施案例研究处理政治决策，结构完整性和价格不确定性
4. Real Option Valuation of Mineral Exploration/Mining Projects using Decision Trees - Differentiating Market Risk from Private Risk [C] . P Guj, A Chandra Project evaluation conference 2012. . 2012

机译：使用决策树进行矿产勘探/采矿项目的实物期权评估-将市场风险与私人风险区分开来
5. Real-option analysis: An examination of managerial decision-making in small-business entities. [D] . Kuhn, Gordon K. 2009

机译：实物期权分析：检查小型企业实体中的管理决策。
6. Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets [O] . Karel Doubravsky, Mirko Dohnal -1

机译：基于决策树拓扑和不完备模糊概率集的决策启发式对帐
7. Real options in defense RD: a decision tree analysis approach for options to defer, abandon, and expand [O] . Celiktas Mehmet 2016

机译：国防研发的实际选择：决策树分析方法，用于延迟，放弃和扩展选择

Decision Tree Analysis and Real Options: A Reconciliation

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