Although the silver market should make some gains on the back of the recent strength in the gold market. The yellow metal has briefly risen back over the 300 dollars/oz level for the first time since February 2000. It will need to see a sustainable turnaround in the industrial metals before a move back towards the 5 dollars/oz mark will be seen. MBR believes that it is unlikely to establish a position over 5 dollars/oz during 2002 and probably 2003, although it should register an overall rise in both of these years. Certainly returning confidence in the global economy will filter down to increased demand for both the industrial and precious metals in the second half of the year. We look for an annual average of 4.45 dollars/oz in 2002, which equates to a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percent over 2001. There is still much that could go wrong - a further string of notable corporate failures in Japan, the US or Europe, for example-which could under undermine the recovery in demand for silver and hence prices.
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