In the final quarter of 1999, we noted further improvements in the outlook for the primary aluminium market, with an upturn in demand in Western Europe and Asia the key driving factors. In recent months the global economic outlook has improved, providing greater demand growth in 1999 and stronger potential for a more notable upturn in aluminium consumption during 2000 than we had previously anticipated. The continued strength of US demand, where consumption grew an estimated 5.3 percent year-on-year, provided a strong basis for 1999 performance, but it was in Asia where dramatic year-on-year gains were seen.The improvement in aluminium demand in some Asian countries during 1999 has been remarkable. Most impressive were the gains in South Korean, where consumption rose by a hefty 45 percent during the year, and in Taiwan which increased by 35 percent. While these gains were following dramatic falls in 1998, which took consumption levels to the lowest on record since 1991 - 1992, they remain impressive nevertheless and consumption has now reached all time highs. However, Japan remains the notable exception and while the downward trend has ceased, getting a firm grip on recovery is proving to be a lengthy process. Consequently we are estimating 7.7 percent growth in Asian consumption in 1999 to 4.85m tonnes, followed by 5.5 percent growth in 2000 as the Japanese situation improves.
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