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Quality of courses evaluated by 'predictions' rather than opinions: Fewer respondents needed for similar results.

机译：通过“预测”而非观点来评估课程的质量：取得相似结果所需的受访者更少。

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BACKGROUND: A well-known problem with student surveys is a too low response rate. Experiences with predicting electoral outcomes, which required much smaller sample sizes, inspired us to adopt a similar approach to course evaluation. We expected that having respondents estimate the average opinions of their peers required fewer respondents for comparable outcomes than giving own opinions. METHODS: Two course evaluation studies were performed among successive first-year medical students (N = 380 and 450, respectively). Study 1: Half the cohort gave opinions on nine questions, while the other half predicted the average outcomes. A prize was offered for the three best predictions (motivational remedy). Study 2: Half the cohort gave opinions, a quarter made predictions without a prize and a quarter made predictions with previous year's results as prior knowledge (cognitive remedy). The numbers of respondents required for stable outcomes were determined following an iterative process. Differences between numbers of respondents required and between average scores were analysed with ANOVA. RESULTS: In both studies, the prediction conditions required significantly fewer respondents (p < 0.001) for comparable outcomes. The informed prediction condition required the fewest respondents (N < 20). CONCLUSION: Problems with response rates can be reduced by asking respondents to predict evaluation outcomes rather than giving opinions.
机译：背景：学生调查的一个众所周知的问题是响应速度太低。预测选举结果的经验需要较小的样本量，这启发我们采用类似的方法进行课程评估。我们期望让受访者估计其同龄人的平均意见比得出自己的意见所需的受访者更少。方法：在连续的一年级医学生中分别进行了两项课程评估研究（分别为N = 380和450）。研究1：一半人对九个问题发表意见，另一半人预测平均结果。针对三个最佳预测（动机补救措施）提供了奖励。研究2：一半的研究对象发表了意见，四分之一的人做出了没有奖项的预测，四分之一的人以上一年的结果作为先验知识（认知疗法）进行了预测。稳定结果所需的受访者人数是通过迭代过程确定的。使用方差分析分析所需的受访者数量之间和平均得分之间的差异。结果：在两项研究中，预测条件所需的受访者（p <0.001）明显少于可比较的结果。知情的预测条件需要最少的受访者（N <20）。结论：可以通过要求受访者预测评估结果而不是发表意见来减少响应率问题。

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