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Saving lives in earthquakes: successes and failures in seismic protection since 1960

机译：在地震中挽救生命：自1960年以来地震保护的成败

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This paper will look at what we have and have not achieved in reducing the risk to human life from earthquakes in the last 50 years. It will review how success has been achieved in a few parts of the world, and consider what needs to be done by the scientific and engineering community globally to assist in the future task of bringing earthquake risks under control. The first part of the talk will re-examine what we know about the casualties from earthquakes in the last 50 years. Almost 80% of about I million deaths turn out to have been caused by just ten great earthquakes, together affecting a tiny proportion of the territory at risk from heavy ground shaking. The disparity between richer and poorer countries is also evident, not only in fatality rates, but also in their rates of change. But the existing casualty database turns out to be a very poor basis for observing such differences, not only because of the small number of lethal events, but also because of the very limited data on causes of death, types and causes of injury. These have been examined in detail in only a few, recent events. All that can be said with certainty is that a few wealthier earthquake-prone countries or regions have made impressive progress in reducing the risk of death from earthquakes, while most of the rest of the world has achieved comparatively little, and in some areas the problem has become much worse. The second part of the paper looks in more detail at what has been achieved country by country. Based on a new expert-group survey of key individuals involved in earthquake risk mitigation, it will examine what are perceived to be the successes and failures of risk mitigation in each country or group of countries. This survey will be used to highlight the achievements of those countries which have successfully tackled their earthquake risk; it will examine the processes of earthquake risk mitigation, from campaigning to retrofitting, and it will consider to what extent the achievement is the result of affluence, scientific and technical activity, political advocacy, public awareness, or the experience of destructive events. It will ask to what extent the approaches pioneered by the global leaders can be adopted by the rest. The final section of the talk will argue that it can be useful to view earthquake protection activity as a public health matter to be advanced in a manner similar to globally successful disease-control measures: it will be argued that the key components of such programmes-building in protection; harnessing new technology and creating a safety culture-must be the key components of earthquake protection strategies also. It will consider the contribution which the scientific and engineering community can make to bringing down today's unacceptably high global earthquake risk. It will be suggested that this role is wider than commonly understood and needs to include: Building-in protection Improving and simplifying information available for designers and self-builders of homes and infrastructure. Devising and running "building for safety" programmes to support local builders. Harnessing new technologies Developing and testing cost-effective techniques for new construction and retrofit. Creating a safety culture Involvement in raising public awareness. Political advocacy to support new legislation and other actions. Prioritising action on public buildings, especially schools and hospitals. Examples of some of these actions will be given. International collaboration is essential to ensure that the resources and expertise available in the richer countries is shared with those most in need of help. And perhaps the most important single task for the engineering community is to counter the widespread fatalistic attitude that future earthquakes are bound to be at least as destructive as those of the past.
机译：本文将探讨在过去50年中在减少地震对人类生命的危害方面我们已经取得和尚未取得的成就。它将回顾在世界一些地区如何取得成功，并考虑全球科学和工程界需要做什么，以协助将来控制地震风险的任务。演讲的第一部分将重新审视我们对过去50年地震造成的人员伤亡的了解。大约100万人的死亡中，几乎有80％是仅由十次大地震造成的，这些地震只对很小一部分因重重地面震动而处于危险中的领土造成了影响。富国和穷国之间的差距也很明显，不仅在死亡率上，而且在变化率上也是如此。但是事实证明，现有的伤亡数据库对于观察这种差异是一个很差的基础，这不仅是因为致命事件的数量很少，而且还因为有关死亡原因，类型和伤害原因的数据非常有限。这些仅在最近的一些事件中进行了详细研究。可以肯定地说，一些较富裕的地震多发国家或地区在减少地震造成的死亡风险方面取得了令人瞩目的进展，而世界上大多数其他国家或地区所取得的成就却相对较小，在某些地区变得更糟了。本文的第二部分更详细地介绍了各国所取得的成就。在一项新的专家小组对参与减轻地震风险的关键人物进行的调查的基础上，它将研究在每个国家或国家集团中，什么被视为减轻风险的成功与失败。这项调查将用来强调那些成功解决了地震危险的国家所取得的成就;它将研究从运动到改造的减轻地震风险的过程，并将考虑成就在多大程度上是富裕，科学和技术活动，政治宣传，公众意识或破坏性事件经验的结果。它将询问其他国家领导人在多大程度上可以采用全球领导人开创的方法。演讲的最后一部分将辩称，将地震保护活动视为一种公共卫生问题，以类似于全球成功的疾病控制措施的方式推进将是有益的：将认为，此类计划的关键组成部分是-建立保护;利用新技术和建立安全文化，也是防震战略的关键组成部分。它将考虑科学和工程界可以为降低当今令人无法接受的高全球地震风险做出的贡献。建议该角色的作用范围比通常理解的要广，需要包括：内置保护改善和简化可供房屋和基础设施的设计师和自建商使用的信息。设计并运行“安全建筑”计划，以支持本地建筑商。利用新技术开发和测试具有成本效益的新结构和改造技术。营造安全文化参与提高公众意识。政治倡导支持新立法和其他行动。优先采取行动对公共建筑，尤其是学校和医院。将给出其中一些动作的示例。国际合作对于确保富裕国家可获得的资源和专业知识与最需要帮助的国家共享至关重要。对于工程界来说，也许最重要的一项任务是应对普遍的宿命论态度，即未来的地震必定会至少与过去的地震一样具有破坏性。

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