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Potential impact of global warming on electricity demand in Niger

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Abstract This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on electricity demand in Niger. Fourteen (14) regional climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analyzed for the study. The study evaluates the ability of the simulations to reproduce the present-day climate variables over Niger, builds a climate-electricity demand model to link the electricity demand with climate variables, and quantifies the potential impact of climate change on daily electricity demand at various global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C) above the pre-industrial level. The climate-electricity demand model was built by combining the principal component analysis and the multiple linear regression analysis (hereafter, MLR). The residual analysis indicates that the MLR model complies with the assumptions of the regression analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the MLR prediction is about 0.81, and the root mean square error (RMSE) is about 149.9 MWh day−1. The ensemble mean of the model simulations projects a future increase in electricity demand at all the GWLs, and more than 75 of the simulations agree on the projection. The study demonstrates how climate services could be used in quantifying the impacts of climate change on electricity demand, and the results would be valuable for reducing future climate risks in the energy sector.

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