...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades
【24h】

Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades

机译：过去四十年来地面运动预测的一致性

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Due to the limited observational datasets available for the derivation of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) there is always epistemic uncertainty in the estimated median ground motion. Because of the increasing quality and quantity of strong-motion datasets it would be expected that the epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction (related to lack of knowledge and data) is decreasing. In this study the predicted median ground motions from over 200 GMPEs for various scenarios are plotted against date of publication to examine whether the scatter in the predictions (a measure of epistemic uncertainty) is decreasing with time. It is found that there are still considerable differences in predicted ground motions from the various GMPEs and that the variation between estimates is not reducing although the ground motion estimated by averaging median predictions is roughly constant. For western North America predictions for moderate earthquakes have show a high level of consistency since the 1980s as do, but to a lesser extent, predictions for moderate earthquakes in Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. A good match is observed between the predictions from GMPEs and the median ground motions based on observations from similar scenarios. Variations in median ground motion predictions for stable continental regions and subduction zones from different GMPEs are large, even for moderate earthquakes. The large scatter in predictions of the median ground motion shows that epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction is still large and that it is vital that this is accounted for in seismic hazard assessments.
机译：由于可用于推导地面运动预测方程（GMPEs）的观测数据集有限，因此估计的地面运动中值始终存在认知不确定性。由于强运动数据集的质量和数量不断增加，因此可以预期，地震动预测中的认知不确定性（与缺乏知识和数据有关）正在减少。在本研究中，针对发布的各种情况，绘制了来自200多个GMPE的预测中值地面运动与发布日期的关系图，以检查预测中的散布（一种衡量认知不确定性的指标）是否随着时间而减小。已经发现，来自各种GMPE的预测地面运动仍然存在相当大的差异，尽管通过平均中值预测而估计的地面运动大致恒定，但估计之间的差异并未减少。自1980年代以来，对于北美西部地区，中度地震的预测已显示出高度的一致性，但在较小程度上，欧洲，地中海和中东地区的中度地震的预测也是如此。根据类似情况的观察，在GMPE的预测和地面中位运动之间可以观察到很好的匹配。即使是中度地震，来自不同GMPE的稳定大陆区域和俯冲带中值地面运动预测的变化也很大。地震动中值的预测中存在较大的分散性，表明地震动预测中的认识论不确定性仍然很大，因此在地震危险性评估中考虑这一点至关重要。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号