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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >Operational earthquake loss forecasting: a retrospective analysis of some recent Italian seismic sequences
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Operational earthquake loss forecasting: a retrospective analysis of some recent Italian seismic sequences

机译：业务地震损失预测：对意大利近期地震序列的回顾性分析

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Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) relies on real-time monitoring of seismic activity in an area of interest to provide constant (e.g., daily) updates of the expected number of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in a given time window (e.g., 1 week). It has been demonstrated that the rates from OEF can be used to estimate expected values of the seismic losses in the same time interval OEF refers to. This is a procedure recently defined as operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), which may be the basis for rational short-term seismic risk assessment and management. In Italy, an experimental OELF system, named MANTIS-K, is currently under testing. It is based on weekly rates of earthquakes exceeding magnitude (M) 4, which are updated once a day or right after the occurrence in the country of an M 3.5+ earthquake. It also relies on large-scale structural vulnerability and exposure data, which serve to the system to provide continuously the weekly expected number of: (1) collapsed buildings, (2) displaced residents, and (3) casualties. While the probabilistic basis of MANTIS-K was described in previous work, in this study OELF is critically discussed with respect to three recent Italian seismic sequences. The aim is threefold: (1) illustrating all the features of the OELF system in place; (2) providing insights to evaluate whether if it would have been a useful additional tool for short-term management; (3) recognizing common features, if any, among the losses computed for different sequences.
机译：业务地震预报（OEF）依赖于对感兴趣区域中地震活动的实时监控，以在给定的时间范围内（例如1周）提供超过一定幅度阈值的预期事件数量的恒定（例如每日）更新）。已经证明，在OEF所指的同一时间间隔内，OEF的比率可用于估计地震损失的期望值。这是一个最近定义为操作地震损失预测（OELF）的程序，它可能是合理的短期地震风险评估和管理的基础。在意大利，一个名为MANTIS-K的实验性OELF系统目前正在测试中。它基于超过4级（M）的每周地震发生率，每天或在该国发生3.5级以上M级地震后立即更新一次。它还依赖于大规模的结构脆弱性和暴露数据，这些数据有助于系统连续提供每周的预期数量：（1）倒塌的建筑物，（2）流离失所的居民和（3）伤亡人数。尽管在先前的工作中描述了MANTIS-K的概率基础，但在这项研究中，对OELF的讨论主要是针对意大利的三个最新地震序列。其目标是三重的：（1）阐述现有的OELF系统的所有功能; （2）提供见解，以评估它是否会成为短期管理的有用附加工具; （3）识别针对不同序列计算的损失中的共同特征（如果有）。

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