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Model updating and seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges

机译：桥梁组合的模型更新和地震损失评估

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The majority of bridge infrastructures in Italy were built in the 1960s and '70s without any specific seismic provision being made. As a consequence, it is expected that these bridges would be highly vulnerable if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that the rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to the bridge infrastructure as a result of such an event could play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region in Italy, this paper demonstrates how both state-of-the-art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and the available data can be used to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred due to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Formulating a probabilistic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo simulation problem helps to resolve the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case study is the use of statistical methods for updating models of: (a) ground motion predictions, (b) vulnerability/fragility and (c) exposure/costs, based on the available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses concerning the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of direct economic losses. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimate of the direct economic losses.
机译：意大利的大多数桥梁基础设施建于1960年代和70年代，但未提供任何具体的地震规定。结果，预期如果经受重大地震事件，这些桥梁将高度脆弱。在这种背景下，自然而然的是，对这样的事件造成的桥梁基础设施经济损失的快速，准确评估可能在地震发生后的应急管理中发挥至关重要的作用。本文以意大利坎帕尼亚地区的公路桥梁基础设施系统为重点，论证了如何利用投资组合损失评估中的最新方法和可用数据来评估由于维修而产生的维修成本的概率分布。到1980年的Irpinia地震。将桥梁组合的概率损失评估公式化为标准的蒙特卡洛模拟问题，有助于有效解决空间风险积分。该案例研究的特定功能之一是使用统计方法来更新以下模型：（a）地面运动预测，（b）脆弱性/脆弱性，以及（c）暴露/成本，这是基于现有数据而得出的。已经观察到，关于地面运动相关结构的其他假设可以显着影响直接经济损失的分布。此外，基于可用记录更新地面运动预测可以显着减少直接经济损失估算中的离散。

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