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首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of earthquake engineering >On the relation between point-wise and multiple-location probabilistic seismic hazard assessments
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On the relation between point-wise and multiple-location probabilistic seismic hazard assessments

机译：关于逐点和多位置概率地震危险性评估之间的关系

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The results of classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) contain no information about simultaneous ground motions at different sites during a particular earthquake. Seismic risk analysis for distributed critical structures requires estimates of the level of earthquake shaking that are likely to occur concurrently at multiple locations: whether the vulnerable elements of a lifeline system are likely to be simultaneously affected by shaking of sufficient strength to disable them and whether the shaking at any one of critical points may be sufficient to cause failure of the whole system. While the analysis of lifeline performance requires multiple-location estimations, the sparsely located elements of a network or critical facilities are designed on the basis of point-wise PSHA. In this paperwe study specific features of multiple-location PSHA, as compared with the classical point-wise PSHA, using Monte Carlo simulations. We analyze the level of ground motion (PGA) that will be exceeded at any site inside a particular area or at several sites simultaneously with reference annual probability. The analysis has been performed for regions of Western and South-Western Germany, Northern and Eastern Taiwan, which represent different levels of seismicity (low, moderate and high, respectively). The relationship between the multiple-location and point-wise estimations are analyzed and quantified. Results of the study may be used to decide whether it may be possible to utilize the procedure of point-wise PSHA in particular cases of multiple-location PSHA, i.e. for assessment of maximum level of ground motion among several sites, or for estimation a reasonable lower safety level when considering simultaneous exceedances.
机译：经典概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）的结果不包含有关特定地震期间不同地点同时发生地震动的信息。分布式关键结构的地震风险分析需要估计可能在多个位置同时发生的地震震动的程度：生命线系统的易受伤害的元素是否可能同时受到足够强度的震动来使它们失效的影响，以及是否在任何一个关键点晃动可能足以引起整个系统的故障。虽然对生命线性能的分析需要进行多个位置的估计，但网络或关键设施中位置稀疏的元素是基于逐点PSHA设计的。在本文中，我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟研究了与传统的逐点PSHA相比，多位置PSHA的特定功能。我们以参考年度概率分析在特定区域内或多个地点同时发生的地面运动（PGA）的水平。已对德国西部和西南部，台湾北部和东部的地区进行了分析，这些地区代表了不同的地震活动级别（分别为低，中和高）。多位置估计与逐点估计之间的关系得到了分析和量化。研究结果可用于决定在多地点PSHA的特殊情况下是否可以使用逐点PSHA程序，即用于评估多个站点之间的最大地面运动水平，或用于估计合理的位置。考虑同时超过时降低安全等级。

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