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首页> 外文期刊>Cancer causes and control: CCC >Predicting lung cancer death in Africa and Asia: differences with WHO estimates.
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Predicting lung cancer death in Africa and Asia: differences with WHO estimates.

机译：预测非洲和亚洲肺癌死亡：与世界卫生组织估计值的差异。

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OBJECTIVE: Reliable cancer burden estimates are rarely available from most developing countries where cancer registration is lacking. This study provided estimates on the current and future number of lung cancer deaths in Indonesia, Vietnam and Ethiopia, and Sub-Saharan Africa at large. METHODS: The number of lung cancer deaths was estimated from detailed smoking prevalence data (obtained from surveys among 8,726 rural individuals aged 25-74 years in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Ethiopia in 2005-2006) and on lung cancer rate estimates among non-smokers. RESULTS: Our estimate for lung cancer deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa is 44,076 in 2005, which is 2.6 times the most recent WHO estimate in 2003 (17,000 deaths). A similar ratio is found for the country-specific estimate in Ethiopia. Our estimates are only slightly higher than the WHO's in Indonesia, and Vietnam. The attributable risk of smoking for lung cancer death among men was 39% in Ethiopia, 80% in Indonesia and 85% in Vietnam. We expect the annual number of lung cancer deaths to double by 2025, even if the smoking prevalence is assumed not to increase further. CONCLUSIONS: WHO estimates on lung cancer deaths in Asia appear to be slightly lower than our study results; however, in Africa, the burden appears to be largely underestimated.
机译：目的：在缺乏癌症登记的大多数发展中国家，很少有可靠的癌症负担估算。这项研究提供了对印度尼西亚，越南和埃塞俄比亚以及整个撒哈拉以南非洲目前和将来肺癌死亡人数的估计。方法：根据详细的吸烟率数据（从2005-2006年在印度尼西亚，越南和埃塞俄比亚的8,726位25-74岁的农村个体中进行的调查中获得）以及非吸烟者的肺癌发生率估算值估算肺癌死亡人数。结果：我们对撒哈拉以南非洲地区2005年肺癌死亡的估计为44,076，这是WHO 2003年最新估计（1.7万例死亡）的2.6倍。在埃塞俄比亚，针对特定国家/地区的估算发现了相似的比率。我们的估计仅略高于世界卫生组织在印度尼西亚和越南的估计。埃塞俄比亚男性吸烟导致肺癌死亡的风险为39％，印度尼西亚为80％，越南为85％。我们预计，到2025年，每年的肺癌死亡人数将翻一番，即使假定吸烟率不会进一步增加。结论：WHO对亚洲肺癌死亡的估计似乎略低于我们的研究结果。但是，在非洲，负担似乎被大大低估了。

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