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首页> 外文期刊>Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics >Surface pressure profiles, vortex structure and initialization for hurricane prediction. Part II: numerical simulations of track, structure and intensity
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Surface pressure profiles, vortex structure and initialization for hurricane prediction. Part II: numerical simulations of track, structure and intensity

机译：用于飓风预测的表面压力剖面，涡旋结构和初始化。第二部分：轨道，结构和强度的数值模拟

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摘要

In part 1 of this study, an assessment of commonly used surface pressure profiles to represent TC structures was made. Using the Australian tropical cyclone model, the profiles are tested in case studies of high-resolution prediction of track, structure and intensity. We demonstrate that: (1) track forecasts are mostly insensitive to the imposed structure; (2) in some cases [here Katrina (2005)], specification of vortex structure can have a large impact on prediction of structure and intensity; (3) the forecast model mostly preserves the characteristics of the initial structure and so correct structure at t = 0 is a requirement for improved structure forecasting; and (4) skilful prediction of intensity does not guarantee skilful prediction of structure. It is shown that for Ivan (2004) the initial structure from each profile is preserved during the simulations, and that markedly different structures can have similar intensities. Evidence presented suggests that different initial profiles can sometimes change the timing of intensification. Thus, correct initial vortex structure is an essential ingredient for more accurate intensity and structure prediction.
机译：在本研究的第1部分中，对代表TC结构的常用表面压力曲线进行了评估。使用澳大利亚热带气旋模型，在对径迹，结构和强度的高分辨率预测的案例研究中对剖面进行了测试。我们证明：（1）航迹预报对所施加的结构大多不敏感; （2）在某些情况下[此处为Katrina（2005）]，涡旋结构的规范会对结构和强度的预测产生很大的影响; （3）预测模型主要保留了初始结构的特征，因此在t = 0时正确的结构是改进结构预测的必要条件; （4）强度的熟练预测不能保证结构的熟练预测。结果表明，对于Ivan（2004），模拟过程中保留了每个轮廓的初始结构，并且明显不同的结构可以具有相似的强度。提出的证据表明，不同的初始轮廓有时可以改变强化的时机。因此，正确的初始涡旋结构是更精确的强度和结构预测的基本要素。

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