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Ensemble based first guess support towards a risk-based severe weather warning service

机译：基于集成的首次猜测支持，以基于风险的恶劣天气预警服务

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This paper describes an ensemble-based first guess support tool for severe weather, which has evolved over time to support changing requirements from the UK National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This warning tool post-processes data from the regional component of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS), and is known as MOGREPS-W ('W' standing for 'warnings'). The original system produced areabased probabilistic first guess warnings for severe and extreme weather, providing forecasters with an objective basis for assessing risk and making probability statements. The NSWWS underwent significant changes in spring 2011, removing area boundaries for warnings and focusing more on a risk-based approach. Warnings now include details of both likelihood and impact, whereby the higher the likelihood and impact, the greater the risk of disruption. This paper describes these changes to the NSWWS along with the corresponding changes to MOGREPS-W, using case studies from both the original and new systems. Calibration of the original MOGREPS-W system improves forecast accuracy of severe wind gust and rainfall warnings by reducing under-forecasting. In addition, verification of forecasts from different groups of areas of different sizes shows that larger areas have better forecast accuracy than smaller areas.
机译：本文介绍了一种基于集合的用于恶劣天气的首次猜测支持工具，该工具随着时间的推移不断发展，以支持英国国家恶劣天气警告服务（NSWWS）不断变化的要求。该警告工具对来自Met Office全球和地区合奏预测系统（MOGREPS）的地区部分的数据进行后处理，被称为MOGREPS-W（“ W”代表“警告”）。原始系统针对严重和极端天气生成了基于区域的概率性第一猜测警告，为预报员提供了评估风险和做出概率陈述的客观依据。 NSWWS在2011年春季进行了重大更改，删除了警告区域边界，并更加注重基于风险的方法。警告现在包括可能性和影响的详细信息，其中可能性和影响越高，破坏的风险就越大。本文使用来自原始系统和新系统的案例研究描述了NSWWS的这些更改以及MOGREPS-W的相应更改。原始MOGREPS-W系统的校准通过减少预报不足而提高了严重阵风和降雨警报的预测准确性。此外，对来自不同大小的不同区域组的预测的验证表明，较大的区域比较小的区域具有更好的预测准确性。

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