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Probabilistic approach to project-specific political risk analysis for mineral projects

机译：矿山项目针对特定项目的政治风险分析的概率方法

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摘要

As globalization continues, sustainability and social responsibility has become essential in foreign mining investment. However, this global trend and the increasing acceptability toward the globalization process, viability and sustainability are not always achieved. Viability and sustainability of mineral projects is dependant on the social and political environment of the region where the mining venture is located and is based on the interaction between the mining entrepreneurs, national-local government representatives, communities, grass-roots groups and independent civil organizations. These are the organizations that play the acting roles on the viability of mining projects and are the main source of socio-political risks for the project. Throughout the decision-making process to invest in a mineral project, socio-political risks are quantified using a set of measurable variables. Nevertheless, these risk measures should be dependent on specific industries. Two mineral projects, even in the same mining district, may have significantly different political risk profiles based on their own socio-political variables. This paper describes a methodology that takes into account local social and political variables in defining a project's specific political risk profile. This contrasts with more typical political risk measures that focus on the country's overall risk profile. Mining operations must operate on a local scale, necessitating the development of measures that consider more local variables.
机译：随着全球化的继续，可持续性和社会责任已成为外国矿业投资中必不可少的。但是，这种全球趋势以及对全球化进程，生存能力和可持续性的日益增长的接受度并非总能实现。矿产项目的可行性和可持续性取决于采矿企业所在地区的社会和政治环境，并基于采矿企业家，国家地方政府代表，社区，基层团体和独立民间组织之间的互动。这些组织在采矿项目的可行性方面扮演着重要角色，并且是该项目的社会政治风险的主要来源。在投资矿产项目的整个决策过程中，使用一系列可衡量的变量来量化社会政治风险。但是，这些风险措施应取决于特定行业。即使在同一矿区，两个矿产项目也可能基于其自身的社会政治变量而具有明显不同的政治风险状况。本文介绍了一种在定义项目的特定政治风险状况时要考虑当地社会和政治变量的方法。这与侧重于该国总体风险状况的更典型的政治风险衡量标准形成鲜明对比。采矿作业必须在局部规模上进行，因此有必要制定考虑更多局部变量的措施。

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