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Adapting importation policy to global commodity markets: implications of rice import allocation in Singapore

机译：使进口政策适应全球商品市场：新加坡大米进口分配的影响

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Structural changes in the global commodity markets have particularly serious implications to the food security of import-dependent countries. Adapting importation policy to that global change is essential given that many commodities are imported to fulfill domestic demand. Using Singapore as a case study, this paper examines rice (Oryza) import allocation for seeking adaptive measures, which have broad implications to import-dependent countries. Its quarterly trade data (between 1999 and 2008) have been analyzed using an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model. Our findings in respect to expenditure elasticity reveal that Singapore will continue its importation from its current range of suppliers, and add new import sources, fulfilling its national diversification strategy. New sources that located in different regions will also strengthen Singapore's regional diversification strategy. Both national and regional diversification strategies enable any country to tap into associative import sources when unfavorable events deplete supply from a normally preferred supplier. In addition, the results in respect to own-price elasticity suggest that Thailand is Singapore's primary preferred source while other exporters are secondary suppliers. Supported by the outputs of cross-price elasticity, secondary sources are substitutable. Within a diversified import portfolio, their competitive relationship gives an import-dependent country a strategic position to hedge against price manipulation and escalation, and to substitute expensive suppliers with cheaper alternatives. For these reasons, an import diversification policy is recommended both as an adaptive measure in response to the global change in commodity markets and, at the same time, as a mean for sustaining food security in import-dependent countries
机译：全球商品市场的结构变化对依赖进口国家的粮食安全具有特别严重的影响。鉴于许多商品进口是为了满足国内需求，因此必须使进口政策适应这一全球变化。本文以新加坡为例，研究了大米（Oryza）的进口分配以寻求适应性措施，这对依赖进口的国家具有广泛的意义。已使用近乎理想的需求系统（AIDS）模型分析了其季度贸易数据（1999年至2008年之间）。我们在支出弹性方面的发现表明，新加坡将继续从其现有供应商的范围内进口，并增加新的进口来源，以实现其国家多元化战略。位于不同地区的新资源也将加强新加坡的地区多元化战略。国家和地区的多元化战略都使任何国家都可以在不利事件耗尽正常首选供应商的供应时利用相关的进口来源。此外，有关自身价格弹性的结果表明，泰国是新加坡的主要首选来源，而其他出口商是次要供应商。在交叉价格弹性输出的支持下，次要来源是可替代的。在多元化的进口产品组合中，它们的竞争关系使依赖进口的国家处于战略地位，可以对冲价格操纵和价格上涨，并用更便宜的替代品替代昂贵的供应商。由于这些原因，建议采用进口多样化政策，既作为对全球商品市场变化的适应性措施，同时又作为维持依赖进口国家粮食安全的手段

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