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Integrated regional modelling and scenario development to evaluate future water demand under global change conditions

机译：综合区域模型和情景开发，以评估全球变化条件下的未来需水量

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Within climate change impact research, the consideration of socioeconomic processes remains a challenge. Socioeconomic systems must be equipped to react and adapt to global change. However, any reasonable development or assessment of sustainable adaptation strategies requires a comprehensive consideration of human-environment interactions. This requirement can be met through multi-agent simulation, as demonstrated in the interdisciplinary project GLOWA-Danube (GLObal change of the WAter Cycle; www.glowa-danube.de). GLOWA-Danube has developed an integrated decision support tool for water and land use management in the Upper Danube catchment (parts of Germany and Austria, 77,000km super(2)). The scientific disciplines invoked in the project have implemented sixteen natural and social science models, which are embedded in the simulation framework DANUBIA. Within DANUBIA, a multi-agent simulation approach is used to represent relevant socioeconomic processes. The structure and results of three of these multi-agent models, WaterSupply, Household and Tourism, are presented in this paper. A main focus of the paper is on the development of global change scenarios (climate and society) and their application to the presented models. The results of different simulation runs demonstrate the potential of multi-agent models to represent feedbacks between different water users and the environment. Moreover, the interactive usage of the framework allows to define and vary scenario assumptions so as to assess the impact of potential interventions. It is shown that integrated modelling and scenario design not only provide valuable information, but also offer a platform for discussing complex human-environment-interactions with stakeholders.
机译：在气候变化影响研究中，对社会经济过程的考虑仍然是一个挑战。社会经济系统必须具备应对和适应全球变化的能力。但是，对可持续适应战略的任何合理发展或评估都需要全面考虑人与环境的相互作用。跨学科项目GLOWA-Danube（WAter Cycle的GLObal变更; www.glowa-danube.de）证明了这一要求，可以通过多主体仿真来满足。 GLOWA-Danube开发了一个综合决策支持工具，用于上游多瑙河流域（德国和奥地利的部分地区，长77,000公里（2））的水和土地使用管理。该项目中调用的科学学科已实施了16种自然和社会科学模型，这些模型已嵌入DANUBIA仿真框架中。在DANUBIA中，使用多主体模拟方法来表示相关的社会经济过程。本文介绍了三种多主体模型（供水，家庭和旅游）的结构和结果。本文的主要重点是全球变化场景（气候和社会）的发展及其在所提出的模型中的应用。不同模拟运行的结果证明了多主体模型代表不同用水户和环境之间的反馈的潜力。此外，该框架的交互式用法允许定义和更改方案假设，以便评估潜在干预措施的影响。结果表明，集成的建模和场景设计不仅提供了有价值的信息，而且还提供了一个与利益相关者讨论复杂的人与环境互动的平台。

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