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Additional evidence for a dual-strategy model of reasoning: Probabilistic reasoning is more invariant than reasoning about logical validity

机译：双重策略推理模型的其他证据：概率推理比逻辑有效性推理更具不变性

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摘要

One of the major debates concerning the nature of inferential reasoning is between counterexample-based strategies such as mental model theory and the statistical strategies underlying probabilistic models. The dual-strategy model proposed by Verschueren, Schaeken, and d'Ydewalle (2005a, 2005b) suggests that people might have access to both kinds of strategies. One of the postulates of this approach is that statistical strategies correspond to low-cost, intuitive modes of evaluation, whereas counterexample strategies are higher-cost and more variable in use. We examined this hypothesis by using a deductive-updating paradigm. The results of Study 1 showed that individual differences in strategy use predict different levels of deductive updating on inferences about logical validity. Study 2 demonstrated no such variation when explicitly probabilistic inferences were examined. Study 3 showed that presenting updating problems with probabilistic inferences modified performance on subsequent problems using logical validity, whereas the opposite was not true. These results provide clear evidence that the processes used to make probabilistic inferences are less subject to variation than those used to make inferences of logical validity.
机译：关于推理推理本质的主要争论之一是在基于反例的策略（例如心理模型理论）与基于概率模型的统计策略之间。 Verschueren，Schaeken和d'Ydewalle（2005a，2005b）提出的双重策略模型表明，人们可能会同时使用两种策略。这种方法的假设之一是统计策略对应于低成本，直观的评估模式，而反例策略则成本更高且使用时更易变。我们通过演绎更新范式检验了这一假设。研究1的结果表明，在策略使用上的个体差异会根据逻辑有效性的推论预测不同级别的演绎更新。当检查明确的概率推论时，研究2没有显示出这种变化。研究3表明，用逻辑推理提出更新问题会使用逻辑有效性修改后续问题的性能，而事实并非相反。这些结果提供了明确的证据，证明用于进行概率推理的过程比用于进行逻辑有效性推理的过程受变异的影响要小。

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