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UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

机译：不确定性和概率

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Thus far the world seems to be following verbatim the dismal script provided by all those economists who were dismissed not so long ago as Jeremiahs. The banking squeeze is still on and the so-called real economy is feeling the icy winds of recession. Consensus Forecasts' latest compilation of predictions of global GDP growth this year puts the global average at -0.2%, with the US at -1.8%, Japan -1.7%, Germany -2% and the Eurozone at -1.4%. Perhaps more importantly, in view of the recession gripping the developed world, China has downgraded its growth prospects to 6%, Russia is experiencing difficulties because of the steep fall in the price of oil and Brazil is feeling the pressure from the dramatic fall in the demand for its exports of iron ore.
机译：到目前为止，世界似乎在逐字地追随不久前被耶利米人解雇的所有经济学家提供的令人沮丧的脚本。银行紧缩仍在继续，所谓的实体经济正在感受到衰退的冰冷之风。 Consensus Forecasts对今年全球GDP增长预测的最新汇编显示，全球平均水平为-0.2％，美国为-1.8％，日本为-1.7％，德国为-2％，欧元区为-1.4％。也许更重要的是，鉴于衰退席卷发达国家，中国已将其增长前景下调至6％，俄罗斯由于石油价格的急剧下跌而遇到困难，而巴西则感受到石油价格急剧下跌的压力。其铁矿石出口需求。

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