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UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

机译：不确定性和概率

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摘要

Until just recently the market had been pleasantly surprised by OPEC's strong compliance record. Between the base line of September '08 and March '09, OPEC had managed to withdraw around 3.5 mbpd of oil from the system in a rare show of solidarity. The record of cuts was not uniform: whereas Saudi Arabia's production was reduced beyond the call of duty, Iran, Venezuela and Angola still had a long way to go to reach their targets (requiring cuts of 10%, 9% and 8% respectively); it was impressive, all the same, given OPEC's past history. However, as the price of oil began to edge higher in March and April, OPEC's resolve began to weaken, resulting last month in the first monthly output increase (+268,000 bpd) since September '08. This development leads to our first consideration, namely that OPEC leaks more and more oil into the market as the oil price continues to rise. We have assigned a probability of 20% to 500,000 bpd of OPEC crude oil seeping into the market over the next eight or so months.
机译：直到最近，欧佩克的强劲履约记录使市场感到惊喜。在'08年9月至'09年3月的基准线之间，OPEC设法从该系统中撤出了约3.5 mbpd的石油，这是罕见的声援。减产的记录并不统一：尽管沙特阿拉伯的减产超出了职责范围，但伊朗，委内瑞拉和安哥拉仍要实现目标还有很长的路要走（分别要求减产10％，9％和8％） ;考虑到欧佩克的过去历史，这同样令人印象深刻。但是，随着石油价格在3月和4月开始小幅上涨，欧佩克的决心开始减弱，导致上个月自08年9月以来首次出现月度产量增加（+268,000 bpd）。这一发展导致我们首先考虑的是，随着石油价格的持续上涨，欧佩克向市场泄漏的石油越来越多。我们预计在未来八个月左右的时间内，欧佩克原油进入市场的概率为20％至500,000 bpd。

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