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UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

机译：不确定性和概率

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Just when oil seemed to be losing its speculative lustre it surprised us by staging a mini-rally from mid-July onwards that took WTI from just under $60/bbl to around $70/bbl. Dated Brent has gone even higher, reflecting tighter North Sea crude supplies due to maintenance and high levels of inventory at WTI's delivery point that have kept WTI below Brent despite the US crude's better quality. Our reference-case forecast has Brent staying around the $69-70/bbl mark till the end of the year and beyond, and it is this basic picture that we should bear in mind when dealing with the possible vagaries of the price. Two key uncertainties dominate the oil scene at present. On the one hand we have global economic recovery, which may or may not be under way, and on the other there is the matter of China and whether it is in full recovery mode, or merely appears to be that way because of recent strong commodity purchases that might have gone straight into storage.
机译：就在石油似乎失去投机光泽的时候，它从7月中旬开始举行小型集会，使WTI从略低于60美元/桶升至70美元/桶左右，这使我们感到惊讶。过时的布伦特原油价格走高，反映出北海原油供应趋紧，这归因于WTI交货点的维护和高库存，尽管美国原油质量更好，但WTI仍低于布伦特原油。我们的参考案例预测显示，布伦特原油价格将一直维持在69-70美元/桶的水平，直到今年年底及以后，这是我们在应对可能出现的价格波动时应牢记的基本情况。目前有两个主要的不确定因素主导着石油市场。一方面，我们有可能正在或可能没有在进行全球经济复苏;另一方面，有一个中国问题，它是处于完全复苏模式，还是仅仅由于最近的强劲商品而处于这种状态可能直接进入存储的购买。

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