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UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

机译：不确定性和概率

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BP's desperate and extremely costly ($3.5 bn and counting) efforts to cap its rogue well in the Gulf of Mexico are expected finally to yield positive results in the next two or so weeks. The latest cap lowered onto the damaged riser at the Macondo prospect seems to have worked, blocking off the uncontrolled flow of oil completely and guiding the oil flow to the collector vessels on the surface, while one of the two relief wells that BP is drilling to cut off the leaking well is in the immediate vicinity of the well bore. Stemming the leaking well, however, is not the end of the story, for the Obama administration's re-worded ban on exploratory drilling in US waters is likely to be reinstated after the recent appeal court ruling against it. The new ban is expected to last till the 30th November, but it may well be extended into next year and obviously the longer it lasts the greater its impact on US oil supplies. We have assumed that a nine-month ban would lead to a loss of 200,000 bpd of US oil production, with a 15% probability of this occurring.
机译：英国石油公司为在墨西哥湾限制流氓油井的努力而付出了巨大的努力，付出了极高的代价（35亿美元，而且还在增加），最终有望在未来两周左右取得积极成果。在Macondo勘探区，将最新的盖子放到受损的冒口上似乎起作用了，它完全阻止了不受控制的油流并将油流引导至地面上的收集器容器，而BP正在钻探的两个减压井之一切断泄漏的井位于井眼附近。但是，阻止泄漏井并不能解决问题，因为在最近上诉法院对此作出裁决之后，奥巴马政府重新措辞禁止在美国水域进行探索性钻探的禁令可能会恢复。这项新禁令预计将持续到11月30日，但是很可能会延长到明年，而且显然持续的时间越长，对美国石油供应的影响越大。我们假设九个月的禁令将导致美国石油产量减少20万桶/日，发生这种情况的可能性为15％。

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