UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

MONTHLY OIL REPORT GROUP

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UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

机译：不确定性和概率

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The key story dominating the news is the sorry saga of BP's Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico. This exploration success gone horribly wrong has morphed into an environmental disaster of the first order and is likely to have serious repercussions for the oil industry both in the near and the longer term. The ban on exploration drilling off the shores of the US will obviously affect the US' ability to find new oil if it lasts for more than six months and it could affect current production, if delays are experienced in bringing on stream fields that are being developed. Even more worrying is the possible impact of this summer's hurricane season on BP's wellcapping efforts and production in general in the GoM, leading us to consider the possibility of a loss of 0.3 mbpd of US output (with a probability of 15%).

机译：主导这一消息的关键故事是BP的Macondo井在墨西哥湾的惨败。这次错误的勘探成功严重演变成了一场环境灾难，在短期和长期内都可能对石油行业产生严重影响。如果持续超过六个月，禁止在美国海岸进行勘探的禁令显然会影响美国寻找新石油的能力，并且如果在开发正在开发的流场方面遇到延误，则可能会影响当前的生产。。更加令人担忧的是，今年夏天的飓风季节可能对BP在GoM中的采油努力和总体生产产生影响，这使我们考虑了美国产出损失0.3 mbpd的可能性（概率为15％）。

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《Monthly oil report》 |2010年第6期|共1页
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MONTHLY OIL REPORT GROUP;
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