UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

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UNCERTAINTIES AND PROBABILITIES

机译：不确定性和概率

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Our base case has the price of oil peaking in the second quarter of this year and then proceeding on a gently downward-sloping curve until 1Q11, rising thereafter with gathering pace. The key reason for this downturn is the decline in the call on OPEC oil from 2Q10 onwards, which occurs as a result of the stuttering global economic recovery and the strong growth in non-OPEC oil. In order to arrest the fall in the price of oil, OPEC trims production In the reference case as the oil price weakens, managing eventually to turn the price around. OPEC, though, is slow to react to the rising call on its oil from 2Q11 onwards and the price of oil rebounds strongly, surging well past $80/ bbl in 4Q11 to end just above $90/bbl in December '11. As always, however, the world of oil is fraught with uncertainties and it is incumbent upon us to try to quantify them and assess their likely impact on the price of oil.

机译：我们的基本情况是，油价在今年第二季度达到峰值，然后继续缓慢向下倾斜，直到2011年第一季度，此后随着步伐的加快而上涨。造成这种下滑的主要原因是从2010年第二季度开始，欧佩克对石油的需求下降，这是由于全球经济复苏停滞和非欧佩克石油强劲增长的结果。为了阻止石油价格下跌，在石油价格疲软的参考案例中，欧佩克削减了产量，最终设法扭转了价格。然而，欧佩克自2011年第2季度起对石油价格上涨的呼声反应缓慢，石油价格强劲反弹，2011年第4季度飙升至每桶80美元以上，11年12月收于每桶90美元上方。但是，与往常一样，石油世界充满不确定性，我们有责任设法量化这些不确定性，并评估它们可能对石油价格的影响。

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《Monthly oil report》 |2010年第8期|共1页
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