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Some observations on the prediction of the dynamic parameters of debris flows in pyroclastic deposits in the Campania region of Italy

机译：意大利坎帕尼亚地区火山碎屑沉积物泥石流动力学参数预测的一些观察

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摘要

Over the last 20 years, many tools have been developed for the prediction of the post-failure behaviour of rapid landslides. However, as pointed out by several researchers, knowledge may be improved by the performance of back-analyses using differentmodels and the evaluation of their reliability. This paper reports the back-analysis, conducted using numerical models, of 57 rapid landslides that have occurred in the Campania region. The back-analysis has been performed using the 2-D DAN_W code (version 2003) with two different Theological models: the Voellmy and the frictional models. The latter has been immediately discarded because it did not match the observed data. Instead, using the Voellmy model, the best-fit values of the parameters (frictionjj, and turbulence E) for different types of flow (channelled, un-channelled and mixed flows) have been researched. With these values a parametric study has been carried out on four representative slope profiles of the Campania region, enabling the prediction of runout, velocity and depth of flow (dynamic parameters) of potential debris flows.
机译：在过去的20年中，开发了许多工具来预测快速滑坡的破坏后行为。但是，正如一些研究人员指出的那样，通过使用不同模型进行反向分析的性能以及对其可靠性的评估，可能会提高知识水平。本文报告了使用数值模型对坎帕尼亚地区发生的57次快速滑坡进行的反分析。使用2-D DAN_W代码（2003版）和两种不同的神学模型（Voellmy模型和摩擦模型）进行了反向分析。后者已被立即丢弃，因为它与观察到的数据不匹配。取而代之的是，使用Voellmy模型，研究了针对不同类型的流（带槽，不带槽和混合流）的参数（摩擦系数j和湍流E）的最佳拟合值。利用这些值，对坎帕尼亚地区的四个代表性坡度剖面进行了参数研究，从而可以预测潜在泥石流的跳动，速度和流量深度（动态参数）。

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