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Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

机译：由于南中国海的风力，新加坡海峡的风暴潮

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Among the semi-enclosed basins of the world ocean, the South China Sea (SCS) is unique in its configuration as it lies under the main southwest-northeast pathway of the seasonal monsoons. The northeast (NE) monsoon (November-February) and southwest (SW) monsoon (June-August) dominate the large-scale sea level dynamics of the SCS. Sunda Shelf at the southwest part of SCS tends to amplify Sea Level Anomalies (SLAs) generated by winds over the sea. The entire region, bounded by Gulf of Thailand on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon, if coincide with spring tide, usually lead to coastal floods in the region. To understand the phenomena, we analyzed the wind-driven sea level anomalies focusing on Singapore Strait (SS), laying at the most southwest point of the region. An analysis of Tanjong Pagar tide gauge data in the SS, as well as satellite altimetry and reanalyzed wind in the region, reveals that the wind over central part of SCS is arguably the most important factor determining the observed variability of SLAs at hourly to monthly scales. Climatological SLAs in SS are found to be positive, and of the order of 30 cm during NE monsoon, but negative, and of the order of 20 cm during SW monsoon. The largest anomalies are associated with intensified winds during NE monsoon, with historical highs exceeding 50 cm. At the hourly and daily time-scales, SLA magnitude is correlated with the NE wind speed over central part of SCS with an average time lag of 36-42 h. An exact solution is derived by approximating the elongated SCS shape with one-dimensional two-step channel. The solution is utilized to derive simple model connecting SLAs in SS with the wind speeds over central part of SCS. Due to delay of sea level anomaly in SS with respect to the remote source at SCS, the simplified solutionscould be used for storm surge forecast, with a lead time exceeding 1 day.
机译：在世界海洋的半封闭盆地中，南中国海（SCS）的构造独特，因为它位于季节性季风的主要西南-东北通道之下。东北（NE）季风（11月至2月）和西南（SW）季风（6月至8月）主导着南海的大规模海平面动力学。 SCS西南部的Sunda Shelf倾向于放大因海风产生的海平面异常（SLA）。整个区域以北部的泰国湾为界，以南部的Karimata海峡为界，以西部的马来西亚半岛东部为代价，以东部的Sunda Shelf断​​裂为界，视风向和风速而定，可能会经历正向或负向SLA 。如果正好是春季潮，东北季风期间强烈的海平面上升通常会导致该地区的沿海洪水。为了理解这种现象，我们分析了位于该地区最西南点的，以新加坡海峡（SS）为中心的风海平面异常。对SS中Tanjong Pagar潮汐仪数据以及该地区的卫星测高和重新分析的风的分析表明，SCS中部的风可以说是决定SLA每小时到每月尺度变化的最重要因素。 。发现SS的气候SLA是阳性的，在东北季风期间约为30 cm，但在阴性的情况下，在SW季风期间约为20 cm。最大的异常与东北季风期间的强风有关，历史高点超过50厘米。在每小时和每天的时间尺度上，SLA的大小与SCS中央部分的NE风速相关，平均时滞为36-42 h。通过用一维两步通道近似拉长的SCS形状可以得出精确的解决方案。该解决方案用于推导将SS中的SLA与SCS中心部分的风速相连接的简单模型。由于SS相对于SCS的远程源延迟了海平面异常，因此简化的解决方案可以用于风暴潮预报，提前期超过1天。

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