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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards >Enhanced palaeoseismic succession at the Concud Fault (Iberian Chain, Spain): new insights for seismic hazard assessment
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Enhanced palaeoseismic succession at the Concud Fault (Iberian Chain, Spain): new insights for seismic hazard assessment

机译：孔库德断层（西班牙伊比利亚链）的古地震序列增强：地震危险性评估的新见解

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摘要

A new trench excavated at the southern sector of the Concud Fault provided evidence of three palaeoseismic events dated to ca. 21, 18 and 13-3 ka BP, respectively. The two youngest ones had not been detected in previous studies. The results extend the total recorded palaeoseismic succession for the fault: eleven events since ca. 74 ka BP to the present day, with an average recurrence period between 7.1 +/- A 3.5 and 8.0 +/- A 3.3 ka; total net accumulated slip of about 20.5 m, with average coseismic slip of 1.9 m. The displacement pattern shows alternating periods of fast slip (up to 0.53 mm/a) and slow slip (0.13 mm/a), resulting in average slip rate of 0.29 mm/a. Using this palaeoseismic information, as well as the potential magnitude previously attributed to the characteristic earthquake at the Concud Fault (M a parts per thousand 6.5-6.6), a simple probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed. The estimated probability of occurrence of the characteristic earthquake within the next 500-year period ranges from 2.3 to 26.1 %, according to distinct hypotheses on the elapsed time derived from the uncertainty about the age of the youngest event.
机译：在Concud断层南段开挖的一条新海沟提供了证据，证明了约3年的三次古地震事件。 21、18和13-3 ka BP。在先前的研究中未发现两个最小的孩子。结果扩展了该断层的总记录的古地震演替：自１９９８年以来的１１个事件。到今天为止为74 ka BP，平均复发期在7.1 +/- A 3.5和8.0 +/- A 3.3 ka之间;总净滑移量约为20.5 m，平均同震滑移量为1.9 m。位移模式显示出快速滑动（最高0.53 mm / a）和缓慢滑动（0.13 mm / a）的交替周期，平均滑动速率为0.29 mm / a。利用这一古地震信息，以及先前归因于Concud断层特征地震的潜在震级（百万分之6.5-6.6），已经进行了简单的概率地震危害分析。根据关于最年轻事件年龄的不确定性得出的经过时间的不同假设，未来500年内发生特征性地震的估计概率为2.3％至26.1％。

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