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Prospect of application of extended range forecast in water resource management: a case study over the Mahanadi River basin

机译：大范围预报在水资源管理中的应用前景-以马哈纳迪河流域为例

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The present study is focused to see the performance of real-time extended range forecast (2-3 week forecast) of monsoon during the 2011 flood event over the eastern state of Odisha in India. The usefulness of such forecast in the management of reservoir flow in a way to reduce the risk of flood conditions is also discussed. This case study is carried out over the Mahanadi River basin situated in eastern region of India, which witnessed severe flood conditions during the late August and early part of September 2011 due to abnormally high rainfall over the Mahanadi River basins leading to simultaneous release of huge volume of water from the Hirakud reservoir. The forecasts are prepared based on the Bi-model average (BMA) of two coupled model outputs viz., the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) monthly forecast model and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled model. The synoptic analysis of the observed rainfall patterns demonstrated that the heavy rainfall is associated with active monsoon circulation during late August and early September, 2011 with the presence of low-pressure systems and anomalous cyclonic circulations at lower level. The extended range BMA forecast based on the initial condition of 25 August, 2011 valid for week 1 (days 5-11) and week 2 (days 12-18) indicate strong monsoon conditions associated with heavy rainfall over the Mahanadi River basins during the period from 29 August to 11 September 2011. With respect to individual model, the ECMWF model is better compared to NCEP CFS in capturing this rainfall episode, although it is much less compared to observed rainfall departure during the period. A mechanism to use such climate forecast along with the use of latest climatological information in the decision making process will be very useful for effective management of reservoir operation particularly during this difficult period.
机译：本研究的重点是观察印度东部奥里萨邦2011年洪水事件期间季风的实时扩展范围预报（2-3周预报）的性能。还讨论了这种预测在减少水灾风险的方法在水库流量管理中的有用性。该案例研究是在印度东部地区的马哈纳迪河流域进行的，该国在2011年8月下旬至9月初见证了严重洪灾，原因是马哈纳迪河流域异常高的降雨导致大量水量同时释放希拉库德水库的水。预测是根据两个耦合模型输出的双模型平均值（BMA）编制的，即欧洲中距离天气预报中心（ECMWF）每月预报模型和美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）气候预报系统（CFS）耦合模型。对观测到的降雨模式的天气分析表明，强降雨与2011年8月下旬至9月初的季风环流有关，低压系统的存在和较低水平的气旋异常。根据2011年8月25日初始条件进行的扩展范围BMA预测有效期为第1周（5-11天）和第2周（12-18天），表明该期间马哈纳迪河流域的强降雨与强降雨有关从2011年8月29日至9月11日。就单个模型而言，ECMWF模型比NCEP CFS更好地捕获了这一降雨事件，尽管与该期间观测到的降雨偏离相比要小得多。在决策过程中使用这种气候预测以及使用最新气候信息的机制，对于有效管理水库运行尤其是在这个困难时期非常有用。

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