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Mechanism and comprehensive countermeasure for drought management from the view of catastrophe theory

机译：突变理论视角下的干旱管理机理与综合对策

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摘要

Drought is one of the major disasters around the world which cause great social and economic hardship. Recent events of severe droughts have motivated comprehensive research on drought management in China like many other countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. In this paper, the mechanism of drought management has been analyzed in light of water supply and water demand management considering water shortage as an inductor of drought. Catastrophe theory has been proposed to explain transitions through discontinuities and unexpected changes in water system. The study indicates that supply management can increase water supply; however, in long term, it may not be sustainable for drought mitigation. Water demand management, on the other hand, improves water use efficiency with less investment. Therefore, the study emphasizes water demand managements for drought management under future changing scenarios.
机译：干旱是世界范围内造成严重社会和经济困难的重大灾难之一。像亚洲，欧洲和非洲的许多其他国家一样，最近发生的严重干旱事件促使中国对干旱管理进行了全面研究。本文根据缺水是干旱的诱因，根据供水和需水管理分析了干旱管理的机理。有人提出了巨灾理论来解释水系统中的不连续性和意外变化。研究表明，供水管理可以增加供水量。但是，从长期来看，缓解干旱可能并不可持续。另一方面，需水管理以较少的投资提高了用水效率。因此，本研究强调了在未来变化的情景下干旱管理中的需水管理。

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