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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards >Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis
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Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

机译：孟加拉湾过去和未来风暴潮的现场观测和数值模拟：纳吉斯飓风的案例研究

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摘要

Storm surges are one of the most important risks to coastal communities around the Bay of Bengal, and it is feared that the threat they pose will increase with climate change in the future. To understand the threats that these events pose, a summary of the field surveys performed in Yangon River Basin after cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 is presented. Though due to government restrictions survey activities were limited to the area near Yangon city, it was found out that the tide due to the storm surge was probably between 3 and 4 m high and travelled around 50 km upstream of the river mouth of Yangon River. Cyclone Nargis could be accurately reproduced using a numerical model that integrated weather, wave, coastal ocean models, and tide prediction system. The application of such an integrated model is relatively new for storm surge simulation and has never been used for the Bay of Bengal storms. The model was then used to also simulate future cyclones over the Bay of Bengal considering a future climate change scenario.
机译：风暴潮是孟加拉湾周围沿海社区面临的最重要风险之一，人们担心风暴带来的威胁将随着未来的气候变化而增加。为了了解这些事件带来的威胁，现总结了2008年缅甸纳尔吉斯飓风过后在仰光河流域进行的实地调查。尽管由于政府的限制，调查活动仅限于仰光市附近地区，但发现风暴潮造成的潮汐可能高3至4 m，并在仰光河河口上游行进了约50 km。使用整合了天气，海浪，沿海海洋模型和潮汐预测系统的数值模型，可以准确地重现纳尔吉斯飓风。这种集成模型的应用在风暴潮模拟中是相对较新的，从来没有用于孟加拉湾风暴。然后考虑到未来的气候变化情景，该模型还用于模拟孟加拉湾上空的未来旋风。

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