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Impact assessment of climate change on future soil erosion and SOC loss

机译：气候变化对未来水土流失和SOC损失的影响评估

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摘要

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important component of soil fertility and agricultural production that also controls the atmospheric CO2 which affects the global carbon cycle. Soil erosion is a major hazard which is directly affected by the rainfall change caused by the climate change. SOC is depleted through soil erosion affected by a change in the rainfall pattern. This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on future soil erosion and SOC with respect to the different controlling parameters (slope, soil and landuse) of soil erosion. The study area is a part of the Narmada river basin in India. Future rainfall is estimated by least square support vector machine method using Hadley Centre coupled model, version 3 data of A2 scenario. Revised universal soil loss equation has been used to estimate the soil erosion spatially, and field data collection is done to estimate SOC. Regression-kriging (RK) method is used for spatial interpolation of SOC on the top surface considering ancillary information of the land. Results show that sediment load has changed by -5.33, 17.97 and 58.37 % in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, from current erosion rate. Soil erosion and SOC loss rate are higher in a high degree of slope (> 20), while SOC stock is low here (5.77 gm/kg). Again, SOC stock (1.27 gm/kg) is high in the clay soil, but soil erosion and SOC loss are less, while sandy loam indicates the opposite. Agricultural land and fallow lands have higher rate of soil erosion and SOC loss, while stock SOC is 12.24 and 9.65 gm/kg, respectively. Results show that soil erosion and SOC loss will be increased in the future and steeper slopes, sandy soil and fallow lands are more vulnerable to the loss.
机译：土壤有机碳（SOC）是土壤肥力和农业生产的重要组成部分，它还控制着影响全球碳循环的大气CO2。土壤侵蚀是一种主要危害，直接受到气候变化引起的降雨变化的影响。 SOC通过降雨模式变化对土壤侵蚀的影响而枯竭。这项研究的目的是量化关于土壤侵蚀的不同控制参数（坡度，土壤和土地利用）的气候变化对未来土壤侵蚀和有机碳的影响。研究区域是印度纳尔默达河流域的一部分。未来降雨量通过最小二乘支持向量机方法使用Hadley Center耦合模型（A2场景的版本3数据）估算。修订后的通用土壤流失方程已用于空间估算土壤侵蚀，并进行了现场数据收集以估算SOC。考虑土地的辅助信息，采用回归克里格法（RK）对顶面上的SOC进行空间插值。结果表明，从目前的侵蚀率来看，在2020年代，2050年代和2080年代，泥沙负荷分别改变了-5.33、17.97和58.37％。在较高的坡度（> 20）下，土壤侵蚀和SOC损失率较高，而此处的SOC储量较低（5.77 gm / kg）。同样，粘土土壤中的SOC储量（1.27 gm / kg）高，但土壤侵蚀和SOC损失较少，而沙壤土则相反。农业用地和休耕地的土壤侵蚀率和SOC损失率更高，而土壤SOC分别为12.24和9.65 gm / kg。结果表明，未来土壤侵蚀和SOC损失将会增加，坡度更大，沙土和休耕地更容易遭受损失。

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