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Using Bayesian methods for the parameter estimation of deformation monitoring networks

机译:用贝叶斯方法估计变形监测网络的参数

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In order to investigate the deformations of an area or an object, geodetic observations are repeated at different time epochs and then these observations of each period are adjusted independently. From the coordinate differences between the epochs the input parameters of a deformation model are estimated. The decision about the deformation is given by appropriate models using the parameter estimation results from each observation period. So, we have to be sure that we use accurately taken observations (assessing the quality of observations) and that we also use an appropriate mathematical model for both adjustment of period measurements and for the deformation modelling (Caspary, 2000). All inaccuracies of the model, especially systematic and gross errors in the observations, as well as incorrectly evaluated a priori variances will contaminate the results and lead to apparent deformations. Therefore, it is of prime importance to employ all known methods which can contribute to the development of a realistic model. In Albertella et al. (2005), a new testing procedure from Bayesian point of view in deformation analysis was developed by taking into consideration prior information about the displacements in case estimated displacements are small w.r.t. (with respect to) measurement precision. Within our study, we want to introduce additional parameter estimation from the Bayesian point of view for a deformation monitoring network which is constructed for landslide monitoring in Macka in the province of Trabzon in north eastern Turkey. We used LSQ parameter estimation results to set up prior information for this additional parameter estimation procedure. The Bayesian inference allows evaluating the probability of an event by available prior evidences and collected observations. Bayes theorem underlines that the observations modify through the likelihood function the prior knowledge of the parameters, thus leading to the posterior density function of the parameters themselves.
机译:为了调查区域或物体的变形,在不同的时间段重复进行大地观测,然后分别调整每个周期的这些观测。根据历元之间的坐标差,估计变形模型的输入参数。有关变形的决定由适当的模型使用每个观察周期的参数估计结果给出。因此,我们必须确保使用准确的观测值(评估观测值的质量),并且还要使用适当的数学模型来调整周期测量值和进行变形建模(Caspary,2000年)。模型的所有不准确性,尤其是观测结果中的系统性误差和严重误差,以及对先验方差的错误评估,都会污染结果并导致明显的变形。因此,采用所有有助于实际模型开发的已知方法至关重要。在阿尔贝塔拉等人。 (2005年),通过考虑变形的先验信息,在估计位移较小的情况下,开发了一种从贝叶斯角度进行变形分析的新测试程序。 (相对于)测量精度。在我们的研究中,我们想从贝叶斯的角度引入额外的参数估计,以建立一个变形监测网络,该网络用于土耳其东北部特拉布宗省Macka的滑坡监测。我们使用LSQ参数估计结果来设置此附加参数估计过程的先验信息。贝叶斯推断允许通过可用的先前证据和收集到的观察来评估事件的可能性。贝叶斯定理强调,观测值通过似然函数修改了参数的先验知识,从而导致了参数本身的后验密度函数。

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