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Order parameter fluctuations in natural time and b-value variation before large earthquakes

机译:大地震前自然时间的阶次参数波动和b值变化

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摘要

Self-similarity may stem from two origins: the process increments infinite variance and/or process memory. The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law comes from the first origin. In the frame of natural time analysis of earthquake data, a fall of the b-value observed before large earthquakes reflects an increase of the order parameter fluctuations upon approaching the critical point (mainshock). The increase of these fluctuations, however, is also influenced from the second origin of self-similarity, i.e., temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes. This is supported by observations and simulations of an earthquake model.
机译:自相似性可能源于两个来源:过程增加无限方差和/或过程记忆。古腾堡-里希特定律的b值来自第一个起源。在地震数据的自然时间分析框架中,大地震之前观测到的b值的下降反映了在接近临界点(主震)时阶参数波动的增加。但是,这些波动的增加还受到自相似性的第二个来源的影响,即地震震级之间的时间相关性。地震模型的观察和模拟对此提供了支持。

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