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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Web-based tsunami early warning system: A case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami
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Web-based tsunami early warning system: A case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

机译：基于网络的海啸预警系统：以2010年Kepulaunan Mentawai地震和海啸为例

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摘要

This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1) pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2) near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3) post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor) fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS) for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30-40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died. The post-event calculations indicated medium-high humanitarian impacts.
机译：这项研究针对以下案例研究分析了全球灾难警报和协调系统（GDACS）的响应：2010年10月25日发生的Kepulaunan Mentawai地震和相关海啸。由欧洲委员会联合研究中心开发的GDACS结合了现有的基于网络的灾难信息管理系统，旨在在发生重大灾难时向国际社会发出警报。海啸模拟系统是GDACS不可或缺的一部分。更详细地说，该研究旨在评估Mentawai和苏门答腊海岸的海啸危害：根据长波理论，使用三种传播模型估算了海啸高度和到达时间。该分析分三个阶段进行：（1）使用该地区的海啸情景数据库进行预先计算的模拟，GDACS系统使用该数据库估算警报级别; （2）地震数据提供者发现新地震时，由GDACS系统自动执行的近实时模拟海啸预报; （3）使用美国地质调查局（USGS）提出的针对该事件的GCMT（全球质心矩张量）断层机制解决方案进行事件后海啸计算。 GDACS系统根据第一类计算来估计警报级别，并在此基础上向其用户发送警报消息。第二种计算类型在事件通知后的30-40分钟内可用，但不会更改估计的警报级别。执行第三种类型的计算以改善初始估计并更好地了解可能的损坏程度。地震的自动警报级别是绿色警报和橙色警报之间的间隔，按照GDACS的逻辑，这意味着不需要或适度需要国际人道主义援助。然而，地震在帕盖岛西南海岸引发了3至9 m的海啸爆发，造成431人死亡。事后计算表明人道主义影响中等偏高。

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