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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method
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Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

机译：用模拟方法测得的瑞士西部阿尔卑斯山大气环流与降水的空间关系

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摘要

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rh?ne catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhne catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.
机译：瑞士西部阿尔卑斯山已经采用了一种基于天气大气环流的预报当地降水的适应技术，即模拟方法。在校准过程中，为地势高度数据建立了相关图。这些地图突出显示了在两个雨量计站（Binn和LesMarécottes）处都位于天气高环流的地方，这两个雨量站都位于高山的罗纳河流域，彼此相距约100 km 。这两个站对不同的大气环流敏感。我们已经观察到，在特定的大气环流模式与强降水事件同时出现的地方，可以找到与模拟方法最相关的数据。那些熟练的地区例如通过空气团的后向轨迹与所示的大气流保持一致。确实，在几天内，高山罗恩河集水区南部的强降水使环流反复偏离气候。我们发现，在Binn站超过152天的降水量超过50 mm的情况下，只有3个没有显示南风的轨迹，这意味着98％的事件都存在这种环流。相关图的时间演变证实，大气环流变量在临近降水期时具有明显更好的预报技能，并且用类似方法将降水事件发生前几天的环流信息视为主要预报因子似乎毫无意义。即使在偏远地区和提前1周可以检测到某些导致严重降水事件的关键循环模式的发生（Grazzini，2007; Martius等，2008），通过模拟方法进行的时间推断似乎还是很差的。根据先前的研究（Obled等，2002; Bontron和Obled，2005），这表明时间外推应由全球环流模型完成，该模型可以处理适应方法可以使用的大气变量。

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