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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >No evidence of increased fire risk due to agricultural land abandonment in Sardinia (Italy)
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No evidence of increased fire risk due to agricultural land abandonment in Sardinia (Italy)

机译：没有证据表明撒丁岛（意大利）因农用土地遗弃而增加了火灾危险

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摘要

Different land cover types are related to different levels of fire hazard through their vegetation structure and fuel load composition. Therefore, understanding the relationships between landscape changes and fire behavior is of crucial importance for developing adequate fire fighting and fire prevention strategies for a changing world. In the last decades the abandonment of agricultural lands and pastoral activities has been the major driver of landscape transformations in Mediterranean Europe. As agricultural land abandonment typically promotes an increase in plant biomass (fuel load), a number of authors argue that vegetation succession in abandoned fields and pastures is expected to increase fire hazard. In this short paper, based on 28 493 fires in Sardinia (Italy) in the period 2001-2010, we show that there is no evidence of increased probability of fire ignition in abandoned rural areas. To the contrary, in Sardinia the decreased human impact associated with agricultural land abandonment leads to a statistically significant decrease of fire ignition probability.
机译：不同的土地覆盖类型通过其植被结构和燃料负荷组成与不同级别的火灾隐患相关。因此，了解景观变化与火灾行为之间的关系对于为不断变化的世界制定适当的消防和防火策略至关重要。在过去的几十年中，放弃耕地和放牧活动一直是地中海欧洲景观转变的主要驱动力。由于弃耕土地通常会促进植物生物量（燃料负荷）的增加，因此许多作者认为，废弃土地和牧场的植被演替有望增加火灾的危险。在这篇简短的论文中，根据2001-2010年撒丁岛（意大利）的28 493起大火，我们发现没有证据表明在被遗弃的农村地区发生火灾的可能性增加。相反，在撒丁岛，与耕地被遗弃相关的人类影响的减少导致着火概率的统计上显着降低。

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