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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Verification of precipitation forecasts of MM5 model over Epirus, NW Greece, for various convective parameterization schemes
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Verification of precipitation forecasts of MM5 model over Epirus, NW Greece, for various convective parameterization schemes

机译：各种对流参数化方案对希腊西北部Epirus MM5模型降水预报的验证

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摘要

The mesoscale meteorological model MM5 is applied to 22 selected days with intense precipitation in the region of Epirus, NW Greece. At first, it was investigated whether and to what extend an increased horizontal resolution (from 8 to 2 km) improves the quantitative precipitation forecasts. The model skill was examined for the 12-h accumulated precipitation recorded at 14 meteorological stations located in Epirus and by using categorical and descriptive statistics. Then, the precipitation forecast skill for the 2 km grid was studied: (a) without and (b) with the activation of a convective parameterization scheme. From the above study, the necessity of the use of a scheme at the 2 km grid is assessed. Furthermore, three different convective parameterization schemes are compared: (a) Betts-Miller, (b) Grell and (c) Kain-Fritsch-2 in order to reveal the scheme, resulting in the best precipitation forecast skill in Epirus. Kain-Fritsch-2 and Grell give better results with the latter being the best for the high precipitation events.
机译：在希腊西北部的伊庇鲁斯地区，中尺度气象模式MM5适用于22天选定的强降水季节。首先，研究了水平分辨率提高（从8 km到2 km）是否会改善定量降水预报，以及在何种程度上扩展了降水预报。通过使用分类统计和描述统计，对模型技能进行了调查，研究了伊庇鲁斯14个气象站记录的12小时累积降水量。然后，研究了2 km网格的降水预报技巧：（a）不使用和（b）激活对流参数化方案。通过以上研究，评估了在2 km网格上使用该方案的必要性。此外，比较了三种不同的对流参数化方案：（a）Betts-Miller，（b）Grell和（c）Kain-Fritsch-2，以便揭示该方案，从而获得Epirus中最好的降水预报技能。 Kain-Fritsch-2和Grell给出了更好的结果，后者是高降水事件的最佳选择。

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