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Site-specific to local-scale shallow landslides triggering zones assessment using TRIGRS

机译：使用TRIGRS评估特定地点到当地规模的浅层滑坡触发带

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Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are common phenomena in many parts of the world, affecting cultivation and infrastructure and sometimes causing human losses. Assessing the triggering zones of shallow landslides is fundamental for land planning at different scales. This work defines a reliable methodology to extend a slope stability analysis from the site-specific to local scale by using a well-established physically based model (TRIGRS-unsaturated). The model is initially applied to a sample slope and then to the surrounding 13.4 km(2) area in Oltrepo Pavese (northern Italy). To obtain more reliable input data for the model, long-term hydro-meteorological monitoring has been carried out at the sample slope, which has been assumed to be representative of the study area. Field measurements identified the triggering mechanism of shallow failures and were used to verify the reliability of the model to obtain pore water pressure trends consistent with those measured during the monitoring activity. In this way, more reliable trends have been modelled for past landslide events, such as the April 2009 event that was assumed as a benchmark. The assessment of shallow landslide triggering zones obtained using TRIGRS-unsaturated for the benchmark event appears good for both the monitored slope and the whole study area, with better results when a pedological instead of geological zoning is considered at the regional scale. The sensitivity analyses of the influence of the soil input data show that the mean values of the soil properties give the best results in terms of the ratio between the true positive and false positive rates. The scheme followed in this work allows us to obtain better results in the assessment of shallow landslide triggering areas in terms of the reduction in the overestimation of unstable zones with respect to other distributed models applied in the past.
机译：降雨引起的浅层滑坡是世界许多地方的普遍现象，影响耕种和基础设施，有时甚至造成人员伤亡。评估浅层滑坡的触发带是不同规模土地规划的基础。这项工作定义了一种可靠的方法，通过使用成熟的基于物理的模型（TRIGRS不饱和），将边坡稳定性分析从特定地点扩展到局部范围。该模型最初应用于样本坡度，然后应用于Oltrepo Pavese（意大利北部）周围的13.4 km（2）区域。为了获得该模型的更可靠的输入数据，已在样本坡度上进行了长期的水文气象监测，该坡度被认为是研究区域的代表。现场测量确定了浅层破坏的触发机制，并用于验证模型的可靠性，以获得与监测活动期间测得的一致的孔隙水压力趋势。通过这种方式，已经为过去的滑坡事件建模了更加可靠的趋势，例如以2009年4月的滑坡事件为基准。使用TRIGRS（不饱和）进行基准事件进行的浅层滑坡触发带的评估对于监测的坡度和整个研究区域而言似乎都不错，当在区域范围内考虑使用土壤学而非地质学分区时，效果会更好。对土壤输入数据影响的敏感性分析表明，就真阳性率与假阳性率之比而言，土壤性质的平均值给出了最佳结果。相对于过去使用的其他分布式模型，通过减少不稳定区域的高估，在这项工作中采用的方案使我们能够在评估浅层滑坡触发区域中获得更好的结果。

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