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首页> 外文期刊>Natural hazards and earth system sciences >Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in a coastal region in the state of S?o Paulo, Brazil
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Shallow landslide prediction and analysis with risk assessment using a spatial model in a coastal region in the state of S?o Paulo, Brazil

机译：使用空间模型在巴西圣保罗州的浅层滑坡预测和风险评估分析

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摘要

This study presents a methodology for susceptibility mapping of shallow landslides just from data and software from the public domain. The study was conducted in a mountainous region located on the southeastern Brazilian coast, in the state of S?o Paulo. The proposal is that the methodology can be replicated in a practical and reliable way in several other municipalities that do not have such mappings and that often suffer from landslide-related disasters. The susceptibility mapping was generated based on the following maps: geological, soils, slope, horizontal and vertical curvatures, and land use. The thematic classes of these maps were weighted according to technical and scientific criteria related to the triggering of landslides, and were crossed by the fuzzy gamma technique. The mapping was compared with the risk sector survey made by the Brazilian Geological Survey (CPRM), which is the official database used by municipalities and civil defense in risk management. The results showed positive correlations, so that the critical risk sectors had higher proportions for the more susceptible classes. To compare the approach with other studies using landslide-scar maps, correlated indices were evaluated, which also showed satisfactory results, thus indicating that the methodology presented is appropriate for risk assessment in urban areas.
机译：这项研究提出了一种仅根据公共领域的数据和软件对浅层滑坡进行敏感性地图绘制的方法。这项研究是在巴西东南部圣保罗州的一个山区进行的。建议是，该方法可以在不具有此类映射并且经常遭受与滑坡相关的灾难之苦的其他几个城市中以实用，可靠的方式进行复制。磁化率图是根据以下图生成的：地质图，土壤，坡度，水平和垂直曲率以及土地利用。根据与滑坡触发有关的技术和科学标准对这些地图的主题类别进行加权，并通过模糊伽玛技术对其进行交叉。该映射与巴西地质调查局（CPRM）进行的风险部门调查进行了比较，该调查是市政当局和民防部门在风险管理中使用的官方数据库。结果显示出正相关性，因此对于易感人群而言，关键风险部门所占的比例更高。为了将该方法与其他使用滑坡-疤痕图的研究进行比较，对相关指标进行了评估，结果也令人满意，表明所提出的方法适用于城市地区的风险评估。

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