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Physical controls on the scale-dependence of ensemble streamflow forecast dispersion

机译：物理控制对整体流预测离散度的尺度依赖性

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The accuracy of ensemble streamflow forecasts (ESFs) is impacted by the propagation of uncertainty associated with quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) through the physical processes occurring in the basin. In this study, we consider consistent ESFs (i.e., observations and ensemble members are equally likely) and we study the effect of basin area (A) and antecedent rainfall (AR) on the ESF dispersion, a metric of flood forecast skill. Results from a set of numerical experiments indicate that: (i) for small basins (?180 km ~2), ESF dispersion is mainly dominated by the runoff generation process and does not depend on the basin size A; (ii) for larger areas, ESF dispersion decreases with A according to a log-linear relation due to the decreasing variability of ensemble QPFs and, possibly, to the channel routing process. In addition, we found that, regardless the basin size, the ESF dispersion decreases as AR increases, and that the influence of AR is larger for basins with fast response times. Physical controls (land cover, soil texture and morphometric features) on the analyzed basin response confirm these interpretations.
机译：通过流域内发生的物理过程，与定量降水预报（QPF）相关的不确定性的传播会影响整体径流预报（ESF）的准确性。在这项研究中，我们考虑了一致的ESF（即观测和集合成员同等可能），并且我们研究了流域面积（A）和前期降雨（AR）对ESF扩散（洪水预报技能的一种度量）的影响。一组数值实验的结果表明：（i）对于小盆地（？180 km〜2），ESF弥散主要受径流生成过程的支配，而不取决于流域的大小A; （ii）对于较大的区域，由于整体QPF的可变性降低，并且可能是由于信道路由过程，ESF色散根据对数线性关系随A减小。此外，我们发现，无论盆地大小如何，ESF的色散随AR的增加而减小，并且AR的影响对于响应时间快的盆地更大。对被分析盆地响应的物理控制（土地覆盖，土壤质地和形态特征）证实了这些解释。

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