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Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

机译：通过统计缩减来评估地中海农业地区的气候变化

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摘要

In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy), Ebro river basin (Spain), Po valley (Italy) and Antalya province (Turkey). We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA) filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP) is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500) as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.
机译：在本文中，我们对四个地中海地区的季节性降水进行了预测：意大利的普利亚地区，意大利的埃布罗河流域，意大利的波谷和土耳其的安塔利亚。我们使用标准相关分析（CCA）在两个版本中进行了统计缩减：在一种情况下，主成分分析（PCA）过滤器仅应用于预测变量，而在另一种情况下，则同时应用于预测变量和预测变量。进行验证测试后，已选择PCA过滤后的CCA，对预测变量和预测变量都进行了过滤。海平面压力（SLP）用作预测指标。在以下三个GCM的基础上，针对方案A2和B2进行了缩减：CCCma-GCM2，Csiro-MK2和HadCM3。已经考虑了三个连续的30年期限。对于普利亚地区的夏季降水，我们还使用500 hPa温度（T500）作为预测因子，获得了可比的结果。结果显示这四个地区的气候变化信号不同，并证实需要进行分析以解决地中海区域内部的差异。最有力的信号是埃布罗河流域夏季降水减少。其他有意义的结果是夏季普利亚地区降水增加，春季和秋季Po谷减少，夏季和秋季安塔利亚省增加。

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