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Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

机译：中等规模的泥石流灾害建模：意大利瓦尔泰利纳迪蒂拉诺

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Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.
机译：近年来，中等（区域）规模的泥石流灾害建模已成为各种研究的主题。在这项研究中，进行了危险区划，纳入了有关泥石流启动概率（空间和时间）以及潜在径流区域划界的信息。在瓦尔泰利纳迪蒂拉诺山区自治市财团（意大利中部阿尔卑斯山）进行了泥石流危害分区。现象的复杂性，研究规模，局部条件因素的变化性以及缺少的数据限制了基于过程的模型对跳动带划界的使用。首先，根据可获得的磁敏感度分区信息，为两个区域的航空照片进行分析，以进行时间概率估计。之后，将危害初始图用作在瑞士洛桑大学开发的基于经验GIS的模型（Flow-R）的输入之一。忽略泥石流大小的估计，因为分析的主要目的是准备中等规模的泥石流危害图。使用分辨率为10 m的数字高程模型以及土地利用，地质和泥石流灾害成灾图作为Flow-R模型的输入，以将每个灾害成因概率类别内的潜在区域限制在最可能发生泥石流的位置启动。之后，使用多个流向和基于能量的算法来计算跳动面积。使用记录的过去事件和航拍照片对最大可能的跳动区域进行了校准。最后，准备了两个泥石流危害图。第一个简单地划定了五个危险区，而第二个合并了有关泥石流传播方向概率的信息，显示了将来可能会受到泥石流影响的区域。建模的局限性主要来自所应用的模型和分析规模，而忽略了泥石流灾害的局部控制因素。提出的泥石流危害分析方法，结合了对源区的自动检测和对泥石流扩散的简单评估，为后续的危害和风险研究提供了结果。但是，为了验证参数和结果以及将其转移到其他研究领域，需要进行更多测试。

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