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The application of numerical debris flow modelling for the generation of physical vulnerability curves

机译：数值泥石流模拟在物理脆弱性曲线生成中的应用

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For a quantitative assessment of debris flow risk, it is essential to consider not only the hazardous process itself but also to perform an analysis of its consequences. This should include the estimation of the expected monetary losses as the product of the hazard with a given magnitude and the vulnerability of the elements exposed. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and vulnerability is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. This study aims at developing physical vulnerability curves for debris flows through the use of a dynamic run-out model. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results can then be applied to consequence analyses and risk calculations. On 13 July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy). One of the largest debris flows events occurred in a village called Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. The Selvetta event was modelled with the FLO-2D program, an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The behaviour and run-out of the flow was reconstructed. The significance of calculated values of the flow depth, velocity, and pressure were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which was calculated as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Three different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow depth, impact pressure, and kinematic viscosity, respectively. A quantitative approach to estimate the vulnerability of an exposed element to a debris flow which can be independent of the temporal occurrence of the hazard event is presented.
机译：为了对泥石流风险进行定量评估，不仅要考虑危险过程本身，而且还要对其后果进行分析，这一点至关重要。这应包括以给定程度的危害与暴露要素的脆弱性的乘积来估算预期的金钱损失。危害和脆弱性的量化综合方法正在成为减少风险管理中的必需做法。这项研究旨在通过使用动态跳动模型来开发泥石流的物理易损性曲线。泥石流的动态跳动模型能够计算物理输出（延伸，深度，速度，冲击压力），并确定危险元素可能受到影响的区域。然后可以将这些结果应用于后果分析和风险计算。在经过两天的强降雨之后，2008年7月13日，瓦尔泰利纳河谷的中部（意大利北部伦巴第大区）释放出一些碎屑和泥浆流。最大的泥石流事件之一发生在一个叫Selvetta的村庄。经过广泛的野外工作以及与当地居民和民防人员的访谈后，重建了泥石流事件。 Selvetta事件是使用FLO-2D程序建模的，该程序是一种具有有限差分数值方案的欧拉公式，需要指定输入水位图。内部应力是各向同性的，并且使用二次模型来计算基础剪应力。流动的行为和跳动被重建。根据对受影响建筑物造成的破坏，研究了流动深度，速度和压力的计算值的重要性。在物理脆弱性的背景下，对每个受影响结构的物理破坏进行了量化，计算为金钱损失与重建价值之间的比率。获得了三种不同的经验脆弱性曲线，分别是泥石流深度，冲击压力和运动粘度的函数。提出了一种定量方法来估算暴露元素对泥石流的脆弱性，该脆弱性可以独立于危害事件的时间发生。

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