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Ensemble analysis of frost damage on vegetation caused by spring backlashes in a warmer Europe

机译：欧洲温暖的春季反弹对植被造成的霜冻损害的综合分析

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Tree dehardening and budburst will occur earlier in a warmer climate, and this could lead to an increased risk of frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. By using a spring backlash index and a cold hardiness model, we assessed different aspects of risk for frost damage in Norway spruce forests during the present climate and for one future emission scenario. Uncertainties associated with climate modelling were quantified by using temperature data from three climate data sets: (1) E-Obs gridded observed climate data, (2) an ensemble of data from eight regional climate models (RCM) forced by ERA-40 reanalysis data, (3) an ensemble of regional climate scenarios produced by the regional climate model RCA3 driven at the boundary conditions by seven global climate models (GCM), all representing the SRES A1B emission scenario. The frost risk was analysed for three periods, 1961-1990, 2011-2040 and 2070-2097. The RCA3-GCM ensemble indicated that the risk for spring frost damage may increase in the boreo-nemoral forest zone of southern Scandinavia and the Baltic states/Belarus. This is due to an increased frequency of backlashes, lower freezing temperatures after the onset of the vegetation period and the last spring frost occurring when the trees are closer to budburst. The changes could be transient due to the fine balance between an increased risk of frost damage caused by dehardening during a period when freezing temperatures are common and a decreased risk caused by warmer temperatures. In the nemoral zone, the zone with highest risk for spring backlashes during the reference period (1961-1990), the spring frost severity may increase due to frost events occurring when the trees are closer to budburst. However, the risk in terms of frequency of backlashes and freezing temperature were projected to become lower already in the beginning of this century.
机译：树木的变硬和发芽将在较暖的气候下更早发生，这可能导致因温度反冲而导致霜冻损害的风险增加。通过使用弹簧反冲指数和抗寒性模型，我们评估了在当前气候和一个未来排放情景下挪威云杉林的霜冻破坏风险的不同方面。通过使用来自三个气候数据集的温度数据对与气候模型相关的不确定性进行了量化：（1）E-Obs网格化的观测气候数据，（2）ERA-40再分析数据强制来自八个区域气候模型（RCM）的数据集合，（3）由区域气候模型RCA3在边界条件下由七个全球气候模型（GCM）驱动产生的区域气候情景的集合，所有这些都代表了SRES A1B排放情景。分析了1961-1990年，2011-2040年和2070-2097年三个时期的霜冻风险。 RCA3-GCM系综表明，斯堪的那维亚南部和波罗的海国家/白俄罗斯的北寒冬林区的春季霜冻风险可能增加。这是由于反冲的频率增加，植被期开始后较低的冻结温度以及树木靠近芽突时发生的最后春季霜冻。这种变化可能是暂时的，这是由于在常见的冷冻温度期间因脱硬而导致的霜冻损坏风险增加与温度升高所致风险降低之间存在良好的平衡。在参考区域（1961-1990年）内发生春季反弹的风险最大的神经区，春季霜冻的严重性可能会由于树木靠近发芽时发生的霜冻事件而增加。然而，预计在本世纪初，在齿隙频率和冻结温度方面的风险将降低。

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