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Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

机译:基于进化建模的模型误差校正方法

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The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963) equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data." On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM), including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.
机译:使用历史数据的信息来估计模型误差的反问题是科学前沿的研究主题之一。在这项研究中,我们使用经典的Lorenz(1963)方程作为预测模型,并使用具有周期性演化函数的Lorenz方程作为现实的精确表示来研究此类问题,以生成“观测数据”。基于进化建模(EM)的智能特性,包括自组织,自适应和自学习,历史数据中包含的动态信息可以由计算机自动识别和提取。因此,本文提出了一种新的基于EM的模型误差估计方法。数值测试证明了这种新方法能够纠正模型结构错误。实际上,它可以在一定程度上实现统计和动态的结合。

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