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Are Housing Bubbles Contagious? A Case Study of Las Vegas and Los Angeles Home Prices.

机译:房地产泡沫具有传染性吗?拉斯维加斯和洛杉矶房价案例研究。

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This paper asks whether speculative house-price pressure in an economic center can spill into related housing markets. In other words, are bubbles contagious? I develop a theoretical model that allows for speculative price appreciation to spread from one market to another. I estimate an error-correction model using quarterly housing data for Las Vegas and Los Angeles and fundamental market variables from 1978 Quarter 2 through 2008 Quarter 1. Las Vegas prices show significant persistence and adjust slowly to disequilibrium. Contagious price and income growth from the Los Angeles market sustained by naive expectations contributed to the bubble that formed in Las Vegas.
机译:本文问经济中心的投机性房价压力是否会扩散到相关的住房市场。换句话说,泡沫会传染吗?我开发了一种理论模型,允许投机性价格升值从一个市场传播到另一个市场。我使用拉斯维加斯和洛杉矶的季度房屋数据以及1978年第2季度到2008年第1季度的基本市场变量来估计误差校正模型。拉斯维加斯价格显示出显着的持久性,并会慢慢适应不平衡。天真的期望使洛杉矶市场价格和收入的传染性增长助长了拉斯维加斯形成的泡沫。

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