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A novel model to estimate the impact of Coal Seam Gas extraction on agro-economic returns

机译：一种估计煤层气开采对农业经济收益影响的新模型

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There is an ever growing demand for energy worldwide and the demand for gas alone is predicted to double between 2010 and 2035. This demand together with concurrent advances in drilling technologies caused the production of unconventional natural gas such as shale gas and coal seam gas (CSG), which is in the focus of this paper, to grow rapidly in the last decades. With the gas bearing coal seams extending across vast areas within their respective basins and with CSG production having to follow these seams through a network of production wells, pipelines and access roads, CSG activity affects large areas and therefore interferes with existing land uses, predominantly agriculture. For the eastern Australian Surat Basin and the southern Bowen Basin alone there are projected well numbers in excess of 15,000 to 20,000 between the years 2020 and 2030. The interference of CSG with agriculture on a large scale has raised concerns about the impact of CSG on farmland, food security, water resources and the socio-economic environment within the affected regions and beyond. This paper presents a newly developed spatial model which provides order of magnitude figures of the impact of CSG activity on gross economic returns,of current agricultural land uses in a given region over the time of CSG production. The estimated gross figures do not account for any compensation payments received by farmers. The model is capable of accounting for a variation in a variety of parameters including impact frequency of distinct infrastructure elements, differences in soil types and associated varying responses of soil productivity, varying length of the CSG production phase and more. The model is flexible in that it can be transferred and applied in other regions as well. Based upon a literature review and given that CSG is an industry that started operating at larger scales relatively recently, we claim that the presented model is the first of its kind to provide these important agro-economic indicators. Crown Copyright (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：全球对能源的需求在不断增长，预计到2010年至2035年间，仅天然气的需求就会翻一番。这一需求与钻探技术的同步发展导致生产非常规天然气，例如页岩气和煤层气（CSG）。 ），这是本文的重点，在最近几十年中迅速增长。由于含气煤层遍布各自盆地内的广大地区，CSG的生产必须通过生产井，管道和通路网络跟随这些煤层，CSG的活动影响了大片地区，因此干扰了现有的土地利用，主要是农业。仅在澳大利亚东部的苏拉特盆地和南部的博恩盆地，预计到2020年至2030年之间的井数将超过15,000至20,000。CSG对农业的大规模干扰已引起人们对CSG对农田影响的担忧，受影响地区及其他地区的粮食安全，水资源和社会经济环境。本文提出了一种新开发的空间模型，该模型提供了CSG生产对给定区域内当前农业土地利用的CSG活动对总经济收益的影响的数量级图。估计的总数字不包括农民收到的任何补偿金。该模型能够解释各种参数的变化，包括不同基础设施要素的影响频率，土壤类型的差异以及土壤生产率的相关变化响应，CSG生产阶段的变化长度等等。该模型很灵活，因为它也可以在其他地区转移和应用。基于文献综述，并且鉴于南玻集团是一个相对较新的产业，我们认为该模型是提供这些重要农业经济指标的同类模型中的第一个。 Crown版权所有（C）2016，由Elsevier Ltd.发行。保留所有权利。

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