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Evaluating the effect of coal mine safety supervision system policy in China's coal mining industry: A two-phase analysis

机译：中国煤矿行业煤矿安全监管体系政策效果评估：两阶段分析

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The construction of a vertical-management system of coal mine safety supervision since 2000 is an important measure to improve coal mine safety in China. This paper examines its effect on coal mine production safety by combining the structural break test, by which the establishment of the supervision system is divided into two phases (2000-2009 and 2010-2013), with an unbiased grey Markov model. This paper then proposes a staged evaluation framework through considering the respective characteristics of sample data and model applicability. The results show that the models are suitable for forecasting the death rate per million tons (DRPMT) of coal due to their desirable characteristics. Coal mine safety has significantly improved since 2000 with the constant decline of DRPMT due to the gradual construction of supervision institutions, which produced increasingly positive institutional effect (2.3373 persons/million tons) in the first phase. However, the benefit from institution construction was close to zero (0.0667 persons per million tons per year) in the second phase due to a supervision-institution construction standstill. By analyzing the current problems, this paper suggests continuing to improve the current supervision system for coal mine safety through further adjusting respective functions of "State Supervision" and local regulation departments; namely, reducing the regulation functions in the "State Supervision", improving its supervising ability for local regulation departments and playing a leading role in coal mine accident investigation. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：2000年以来，建立煤矿安全监管垂直管理体系是提高我国煤矿安全的重要举措。本文结合结构断裂试验研究了其对煤矿安全生产的影响，通过无偏灰色马尔可夫模型将监督体系的建立分为两个阶段（2000-2009年和2010-2013年）。然后，本文通过考虑样本数据的各自特征和模型适用性，提出了一个阶段性评估框架。结果表明，该模型具有理想的特征，适用于预测煤炭的百万吨死亡率（DRPMT）。自2000年以来，由于监督机构的逐步建设，由于DRPMT的持续下降，煤矿安全得到了显着改善，第一阶段产生了越来越积极的机构作用（2.3373人/百万吨）。然而，由于监督机构的建设停滞，第二阶段机构建设的收益几乎为零（每年每百万吨0.0667人）。通过分析当前存在的问题，本文建议通过进一步调整“国家监管”部门和地方监管部门的职能，继续完善现行的煤矿安全监管体系。即减少“国家监管”中的监管职能，提高对地方监管部门的监管能力，在煤矿事故调查中发挥领导作用。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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