...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Radiation and Environmental Biophysics >Multi-model inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors mortality data (1950-2000)
【24h】

Multi-model inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors mortality data (1950-2000)

机译：基于日本原子弹幸存者死亡率数据（1950-2000年）的成人和儿童白血病过度相对风险的多模型推断

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese A-bomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a model-averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose-response. The model-averaged ERR at 1 Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12 years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55 years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5-year-old child of 10 mSv and applying the model-averaged risk at 10 mSv for a 7-year-old exposed at 2 years ofage would result in an ERR = 0.33, 95% CI: -0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted model-averaged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.
机译：当推断特定模型的参数时，一些相对较新的问题会增强忽略模型不确定性的常规做法，从而引起辐射防护界的注意。最近的9种由日本A型炸弹流行病学死亡率数据开发的白血病风险模型已包含在模型平均程序中，因此主要结论不仅仅取决于一种模型或统计检验。为了获得经过特殊计算的具有不确定性的儿童过剩相对危险度（ERR），模型将此处的模型集中在暴露后各个短时期的成人和年轻人的各个中心，以说明与ERR剂量相关的拟合参数之间的相关性-响应。在1 Sv时，模型平均ERR对于7岁和12岁的年龄没有统计学意义，但对于17岁，22岁和55岁的年龄却具有统计学意义。因此，当将这些风险应用于其他情况时，例如核设施附近的儿童，或估计背景辐射导致的儿童白血病发病率的比例（即，低剂量的年轻人和自接触以来的短时间），仅具有以下风险：非常有限的值，不确定范围包括零风险。例如，假设一个5岁儿童的总辐射剂量为10 mSv，并且对在2岁年龄下暴露的7岁儿童在10 mSv上应用模型平均风险将导致ERR = 0.33，95 ％CI：-0.51至1.22。一种模型（联合国原子辐射影响科学委员会报告，第1卷。附件A：辐射和癌症的流行病学研究，联合国，纽约，2006年）对模型平均的白血病风险加权最大，占总风险的一半统一加权，建议将其应用于将来继续忽略模型不确定性的白血病风险评估中。但是，基于此处介绍的分析，通常建议在将来的风险分析中考虑模型不确定性。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号