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Quantifying the impacts of sea-level rise on coastal biodiversity: A case study on lichens in the mid-Atlantic Coast of eastern North America

机译:量化海平面上升对沿海生物多样性的影响:以北美洲中部大西洋沿岸的地衣为例

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Preliminary, large-scale assessments of global sea-level rise (SLR) have predicted significant impacts to coastal and island biodiversity. Region-specific estimates of SLR impacts that incorporate accurate species distributions and local rates of SLR are now required for effective conservation planning. Here we use a dataset of >13,000 occurrence records for lichens, obligate symbiotic fungi, in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain of eastern North America to model distributions of 193 species. The resulting models were used to quantify the amount of each species' distribution that is occupied by unsuitable land use types, along with the potential area that will be lost to SLR. We show that species have likely already lost an average of 32% of their distributional area to development and agriculture, and are predicted to lose an average of 12.4 and 33.7% of their distributional area with one foot (similar to 0.3 m) and six feet (similar to 1.8 m) of SLR, respectively. Functional and taxonomic groups were compared to identify specific effects of SLR. We show that species reproducing with symbiotic propagules have significantly larger distributions than species that reproduce sexually with fungal spores alone, and that the sexually reproducing species are predicted to lose greater distributional area to SLR. Cladonia species occupy significantly less area in the MACP than Parmotrema species and are predicted to lose more of their distributions to SLR. We further examined patterns of total species diversity and found that the area with the highest diversity is the Dare Peninsula in North Carolina, which is also predicted to lose the most land area to SLR. The workflow established here is flexible and applicable to estimating SLR impacts worldwide and can provide essential insights for local conservation planning. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译:全球海平面上升(SLR)的初步,大规模评估已经预测了对沿海和岛屿生物多样性的重大影响。为了进行有效的保护规划,现在需要对特定区域的SLR影响进行估算,其中要包括准确的物种分布和SLR的当地比率。在这里,我们使用北美洲中部大西洋中部沿海地区地上性专性共生真菌的> 13,000个发生记录的数据集来模拟193种的分布。结果模型被用于量化不适当的土地利用类型所占据的每个物种分布的数量,以及将被SLR失去的潜在面积。我们表明,物种可能已经平均损失了32%的分布面积用于发展和农业,并且预计一只脚(大约0.3 m)和6英尺会平均损失其分布面积的12.4和33.7%。 (类似于1.8 m)的SLR。比较了功能组和分类组,以识别SLR的特定作用。我们显示,与共生繁殖体繁殖的物种比仅与真菌孢子有性繁殖的物种具有更大的分布,而且有性繁殖物种预计将对SLR失去更大的分布面积。枝孢菌属物种在MACP中所占的面积显着少于Parmotrema物种,并且据预测会在SLR中失去更多的分布。我们进一步检查了总物种多样性的模式,发现多样性最高的地区是北卡罗来纳州的大尔半岛,据预测,该地区的土地面积也将流向SLR。此处建立的工作流程非常灵活,可用于估计全球的SLR影响,并且可以为当地的保护规划提供重要的见识。 (C)2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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